Weekly Charts Updated

Each week we highlight charts below of the SP500, Russell 2000, NASDAQ Composite, UUP, EEM, TLT, HYG and LQD. The charts use the 50 day moving average slope indicator. When it is green we like the instrument we are tracking and when it is red we avoid the name/sector/asset class.

U.S. Equity indexes are mixed now. The S&P 500 is at 0 with the NASDAQ Composite back above that level. Remember what matters is the slope of the 50 day moving average not the 50 day moving average itself.

All charts are created from www.erlangerchartroom.com and if interested in using this indicator in Chart Room please feel free to send us an email by using the Contact Us section from the home page.

MM 50Day ROCAdj Image 1 SPX

Starbucks (SBUX)

Starbucks (SBUX) will report earnings after the close. Estimates are $0.74 versus $0.60. The stock is $6 off its recent peak. The stock still has some nice upside to its price target.

sbux

An Early Look At Today’s Action

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck this week include Shell Midstream Partners LP and Sientra. Secondaries on deck of note for Tuesday AHRO CUDA RGLS SHO UBA VNDA .

In After Hours Trading (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): X+.98, AMP+.28, AFG+.24, EA+.20, EIX+.18, AFL+.13, DNB+.13, CINF+.13, WYNN+.10, BXP+.09, WDC+.07, SWI+.07, AZPN+.07, MCK+.06, VRTX+.06, FEIC+.06, CHRW+.05, KIM+.04, TRN+.04, TSS+.04, TQNT+.04, MAR+.03, CBT+.03, FB+.03, FISV+.02, SKT+.02, EQR+.02, KRC+.02, SM-.02, HIW-.02, CNL-.02, WSH-.03, PNRA-.04, GILD-.06, VRSK-.06, APC-.10, AJG-.10.

IPO Financial provides our capital raise data.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: S&P -2.50, Dow Jones +1 and NDX -9 with fair values lower lessening the weakness. Asia and Europe higher. Copper, silver and gold lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield -1. Prices as of 7:40 a.m.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by market cap descending): V, BIDU, MET, SU, WMB, KRFT, ALL, WPZ, ABX, LNC, ACMP, RRC, HBI, CBG, EQIX, AKAM, MUR, ESV, FFIV, UNM, FNF, FMC, RJF, ACGL, NCLH, OII, WLL, PPC, FBHS, EXR, KEX, DRE, AEM, CAR, FLEX, QGEN, MEOH, NE, MAA, AXS, NEU, AUY, CSGP, AIZ, SCI, TFSL, BMR, STR, ARRS, SSNC, SPN, VR, PRXL, CW, TEX, TGI, CBL, RFMD, ACHC, ATML.

Due Thursday morning (by market cap descending): RDS.A, NVO, MO, MA, COP, EPD, TEVA, TWC, AMT, NOV, TRI, JCI, APD, CME, CAH, MPC, CI, K, PEG, GG, ABC, HST, IVZ, XEL, MOS, FIS, NI, BWA, BG, MGM, O, LLL, INCY, BLL, TCK, APO, CTRX, LKQ, SCG, OAK, Q, ALU, IRM, HAR, VNTV, ODFL, ITC, INGR, MD, LECO, MSCI, PBI, AVP, ALLE, MPLX, RGLD, GEL, LPLA, ATK, CVI, PCRX, CVRR, DST, UPL, GNC, WST, STRZA, KMT, IDA, FIG.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

USA Today: Iaqi Kurdish peshmerga troops are on way to Syriato help Syrian Kurds fight ISIS. Wall Street eyes Fed next move post QE3. How Facebook (FB) blew a great quarter. Is Facebook a buy here?

Stock Scorecard

One of the best features of Superstock Trader is the stock scorecard. As a reader of Wall Street Rebel, we provide a daily scorecard that is different from Superstock Trader. If you buy and sell stocks, then you should read on to learn more about the scorecard.

Each month you have up to 10 stocks whose scorecard you can review. That works out to 120 names a year to review. At some point in the future, we will be expanding the number of names that you can review each month for an incremental fee.

Each day we also feature a name in our Stock Scorecard. The goal is to cover additional names of interest as well as timely reviews, i.e. earnings are due or a big analyst meeting is ahead. Effectively, you have access to 30 scorecards a month (20 in our Daily Scorecard and another 10 for your viewing pleasure).

A question many might have is where do I find the Scorecard? When you log in to Superstock Trader it is one of the “top tabs”. Simply click and you will have access.

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We know this process works because it is the leading catalyst of our Morning Matters Portfolio. This portfolio is having another tremendous year when most portfolios are lagging. Is this a coincidence? We think not.

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A recent example of how well the scorecard works is Costco (COST). A certain well known figure in the media gave up on Costco at $110 a share several months ago. Meanwhile, we did not and now it is at $130 a share. If only he had access to our scorecard, then he might not have been so quick to give up the ghost.

You see our price target is $136.18 with an upper limit of $148.43. Tuesday it closed at $131.06. Here is how to think of the price target. It is price that values the stock fairly. The upper limit is the best case scenario.

We also show some other key data in the scorecard like the P/E Ratio, Sales Growth Rate, Cash Flow Return on Investment (CFROI) and Asset Growth. This is all great information to help you evaluate any recommendation from us, another newsletter or a hot tip from a friend.

Bottom line, do not fight the scorecard or be prepared to be punished when an overvalued name drops. Facebook (FB) is the best current example we can give. Its upper target is $67.58 and sure enough the stock has fallen post earnings from $80.77 to $74.15. It will not be a shock to us when it moves into the $60s.

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The End of QE3

Today the Federal Reserve will conclude its latest meeting today and in all likelihood end QE3. The $64,000 question is how will the markets react to this action.

QE3

Options Activity

Index ETF Options Volume

 We are going to highlight unusual options activity as well going forward. The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. EFA saw excess put action and heavy volume. No names saw unusual call action.

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The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volume

Kraft Food Group (KRFT)

Kraft Foods Group (KRFT) will report earnings after the close. Estimates are $0.75 versus $0.70. There is nice upside to this name that is a more defensive stock.

 krft

Portfolio Update

The S&P 500 has risen since our last update. The Nasdaq Composite rose as well. The portfolio is now 75% invested long, 0% short and 25% in cash, net long 75%. We are now at a value of 854.87% from 826.06% last Tuesday. We added a new buy this past week that could be a nice 25-50% gainer over the next year.

It appears for the time being that 2000 on the S&P 500 has become resistance and 1950 is back as support up from 1900.

We have added the price target from the Alpha Intelligence Stock Scorecard into the weekly update. All stocks are below their price targets thanks to the pullback except one.

Remember these returns are total returns with the average change for all winners and losers is 7.70% per idea. Our batting average of closed winners and losers is 70%. The portfolio is up 854.87% and from inception when it began at 0% in April of 2008. We began 2013 at a value of 478.60% so we had a very nice gain for 2013 ending at 732.40%. So far this year we are up 122.47 points or 16.73%. The performance on the Uncommon Wisdom Daily Portfolio Tracker is a bit higher due to dividends which they add in. We have never added in dividends so our weekly results are understated since 2008.

Facebook (FB)

Facebook (FB) will report earnings tomorrow after the close. Earnings estimates are $0.40 versus $0.25. Depsite the strong growth, the stock is very overvalued.

fb

Options Activity

Index ETF Options Volume

We are going to highlight unusual options activity as well going forward. The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. SPY saw excess put action and heavy volume. No names saw unusual call action.

  [Image 1]

The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volume