Autozone (AZO)

Autozone (AZO) will report earnings in the morning. There is still some but not much upside left to this name.


The Week Ahead

1.Geopolitical and Fiscal Events Monday sees Kansas City Federal Reserve President George speaks at 9:30 a.m. EDT as does New York Federal Reserve President Dudley at 10:00 a.m. EDT then Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Kocherlakota speaks at 7:30 p.m. EDT. Tuesday sees St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard speak at 9:00 a.m. EDT followed by Kansas City Federal Reserve President George at 9:30 a.m. EDT. Wednesday sees Chicago Federal Reserve President Evans speak at 1:00 p.m. EDT. Thursday sees Atlanta Federal Reserve President Lockhart speak at 3:20 p.m. EDT.

2.Economic Releases. Releases of note this week other than the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and jobless claims include HSBC China Manufacturing, existing home sales, new home sales, durable goods and Q2 GDP along with Michigan Sentiment.

3.Earnings Releases. Notable releases include (in order of day’s reporting with Monday first and Friday last AZO ASNA CCL BBBY CAN PAYX NKE MU BBRY FINL among others companies as we continue Q1 earnings. See the earnings section.

Futures Higher But Pairing Gains

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck today Alibaba. Secondaries on deck today GST VKTX.

In After Hours Trading (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): CLC+.05, UNFI+.02.

IPO Financial provides our capital raise data.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: S&P 500 +4.75, Dow Jones +58 and NDX +12.80 with fair values lower helping the open. Asia higher and Europe higher. Copper higher with silver and gold lower. WTI Crude lower and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield flat. Prices as of 7:50 a.m.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by market cap descending): none of note.

Due Monday morning (by market cap descending): AZO.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

USA Today: Alibaba (BABA) priced at $68 a share. Dow and S&P 500 close at record highs. Whole Foods (WFM) to test rewards program.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): none of note.

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1862 stocks rise and 1207 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1636 rise and 1092 fall.

The SP 500 is now above its 50 day exponential moving average and is above the 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is now back above its 50 day moving exponential average and its 200 day exponential moving average as well with yesterday’s action.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is now invested. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is now invested.

YTD 4311 (+368) stocks are higher for the year and 2579 (358) are lower. Updated 8/26/14 Close. Prior Update 8/5/14 close.


August Leading Indicators are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to 0.4% from 0.9%.


G-20 Finance Ministers and central bank governors meet in Australia over the weekend.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst and investor meetings of note TW VHC.

Conference of Note

FCC Roundtable on Open Internet

M & A News

SAP to buy Concur Technologies (CNQR) for $129 a share. Stock closed at $107.80.

Key Upgrades and Downgrades


Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs AEO CXP EMES CRR
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Merrill Lynch
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
Piper Jaffray
Key Banc
Raymond James ZION

The Madison Letter

We are invested on our overall Market Call. Since inception, our overall timing return is 72.93% versus 41.56% on the S&P 500 for excess return of 31.36%. Scores change day to day.

We added a buy on iShares Core S&P 500 Index Fund ETF (IVV) and took gains on Tuesday 9/2.

We began to offer a buy and sell strategy via our Madison Market Timing Indicator at the beginning of April of 2007. There are now 24 open and closed winning trades to 8 closed losing trades with our market timing results.

madison market timiing

Scotland Stays In The European Union

European stocks are moving higher on the news that Scotland will remain part of the United Kingdom. The vote was 55% to 45%.


Index ETF Materials Options Volume

Index ETF Materials Options Volume

We are going to highlight unusual options activity as well going forward. No names saw unusual options activity but several saw heavy put action.


The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

    • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
    • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
    • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
    • Sym = Symbol
    • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
    • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
    • Delta = Change in slope
    • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
    • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
    • cVolum = Call Volume
    • pVolum = Put Volumed

Monsanto (MON)

Monsanto (MON) moved higher yesterday on better a report from Stifel where they put a buy on the stock with a price target of $135. We would concur but do not have quite as high a price target.


Federal Reserve Decides To Take Its Time & House Does Its Job

The Federal Reserve yesterday decided that it would take its time before it concluding the historic easy money policy. Stocks rose ysterday and are rising this morning as well.

Federal Rserve

The House of Representatives did its job yesterday and as such avoided a government shutdown and extended the ability of the export-import bank to operate for another nine months.

House of Representatives

Morning Matters: Weekly Charts Updated

Each week we highlight charts below of the SP500, Russell 2000, NASDAQ Composite, UUP, EEM, TLT, HYG and LQD. The charts use the 50 day moving average slope indicator. When it is green we like the instrument we are tracking and when it is red we avoid the name/sector/asset class.

 We replaced CFT with LQD and that moved negative last week.


Nabors Industries (NBR)

Unlike other drilling names that have become very cheap to their price targets, Nabors Industries (NBR) is still rather expensive and not worth a look yet.