Russia Pulls Bond Sale

Bad news for Russia. The Finance Ministry pulled Wednesday’s offering due to “unfavorable market conditions”. Clearly, the sanctions are hitting Russia in ways never imagined. Without an ability to sell bonds, a country may face dire consequences.

Russia Bond Offering

Weekly Portfolio Update

The S&P 500 has risen since our last update. The Nasdaq Composite rose as well. The portfolio is now 67% invested long, 0% short and 33% in cash, net long 67%. We are now at a value of 826.06% from 809.43%last Tuesday.

It appears for the time being that 2000 on the S&P 500 has become resistance and 1900 is back as support.

We have added the price target from the Alpha Intelligence Stock Scorecard into the weekly update. All stocks are below their price targets thanks to the pullback except one. ETFs recommendations can be found in The Madison Letter. In 2014, this will be updated each Friday with Market Crash Indicators.

Remember these returns are total returns with the average change for all winners and losers is 7.44% per idea. Our batting average of closed winners and losers is 70%. The portfolio is up 826.06% and from inception when it began at 0% in April of 2008. We began 2013 at a value of 478.60% so we had a very nice gain for 2013 ending at 732.40%. So far this year we are up 77.03 points or 10.51%. The performance on the Uncommon Wisdom Daily Portfolio Tracker is a bit higher due to dividends which they add in. We have never added in dividends so our weekly results are understated since 2008.

Verizon Communications (VZ)

Verizon Communications (VZ) will report earnings before the open. Estimates are $0.92 versus $0.77. There is some nice upside for Verizon.

 vz

Options Activity

Options Activity By Volume

We highlight unusual options activity with unusual volume activity The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. Arcelmittal (MT) saw unusual put action as it tries to find a bottom.No names had unusual call action.

 [Image 1]

[Image 2]

The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volume

Futures Swing To Red On IBM Weakness

n After Hours Trading

Four IPOs on deck today this week including Virobay and Viking Therapeutics. Secondaries on deck of note TTPH.

In After Hours Trading

(Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]):none of note.

IPO Financial provides our capital raise data.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: S&P 500 -5.50, Dow Jones -88 and NDX -1.20 with fair values lower lessening the losses of futures. Asia higher and Europe lower. Copper lower with silver and gold higher. WTI Crude higher and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield +1. Prices as of 7:55 a.m.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by market cap descending): AAPL, TXN, ILMN, CMG, CE, PKG, ZION, STLD, CDNS, BRO, EWBC, ELS, HXL.

Due Tuesday morning (by market cap descending): VZ, KO, UTX, MCD, LMT, KMB, CP, ITW, TRV, RAI, ARMH, OMC, HOG, RF, PNR, WAT, AOS, SBNY, CSL, LPT, MAN, GPK, ATI, EAT, SNV.

IBM Corporation (IBM)

IBM Corporation (IBM) will report earnings after the close. Estimates are $4.32 versus $3.99. There is good upside for the company especially if they can report some good numbers.

 ibm

The Week Ahead

1. Geopolitical and Fiscal Events. Wednesday sees minutes out from the Bank of England.

2. Economic Releases. Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and jobless claims include existing home sales, CPI, leading indicators and new home sales.

3. Earnings Releases. Notable releases include (in order of day’s reporting with Tuesday first and Friday last AAPL IBM VZ KO T BA MSFT AMZN PG UPS among others companies as we continue Q3 earnings.

Options Activity

Options Activity By Volume

We highlight unusual options activity with unusual volume activity The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. Talisman Energy (TLM) saw unusual call action as it tries to find a bottom.No names had unusual put action.

 [Image 1]

[Image 2]

The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volume

Las Vegas Sands (LVS)

Gaming stock Las Vegas Sands (LVS) will report earnings after the close. Estimates are for $0.87 versus $0.82.  There is some nice upside for this name.

 lvs

Options Activity

Options Activity By Volume

We highlight unusual options activity with unusual volume activity The third column from the left will highlight such outliers.  No names saw unusual call action.  Conoco Phillips (COP)  saw unusual put action jump as it was pounded for a -2.75% loss. At $65 this is stupid cheap and it is almost there.

   [Image 1]

[Image 2]

The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volume