The Week Ahead

1.Geopolitical and Fiscal Events Congress is on recess for the next week and markets should continue to like this vacation from the political nonsense. President Obama visits Estonia on Wednesday. Thursday sees Federal Reserve Cleveland President Mester speak in Pittsburgh and Federal Reserve Dallas President Fisher speaks in Dallas. Also, Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Kocherlakota speaks on Thursday. Friday sees Federal Reserve Boston President Rosengren as well as Federal Reserve Philadelphia President Plosser.

2.Economic Releases. Releases of note this week other than the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and jobless claims include construction spending, ISM Manufacturing, factory orders, Q2 Productivity and jobs data including ADP Payroll and Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

3.Earnings Releases. Notable releases include (in order of day’s reporting with Monday first and Friday last) GWRE CONN PVH HRB COO JOY PAY PNY among others companies as we continue Q1 earnings.

Conns (CONN)

Conns (CONN) will report earnings before the open and has some nice upside. Worth a look if guidance is decent.

conn

The Madison Letter: Current Update

We began to offer a buy and sell strategy via our Madison Market Timing Indicator at the beginning of April of 2007. There are now 23 open and closed winning trades to 8 closed losing trades with our market timing results. We were left with one long position TRF from our original buys before launching with Uncommon Widsom Daily. This column replaces the Morning Matters on Fridays.

madison market timing

Pacific Sun (PSUN)

Pacific Sun (PSUN) fell after reporting earnings Thursday after the close. The stock has major upside to our price target. Worth a look.

 psun

Weekly Charts Updated

Each week we highlight charts below of the SP500, Russell 2000, NASDAQ Composite, UUP, EEM, TLT, HYG and LQD. The charts use the 50 day moving average slope indicator. When it is green we like the instrument we are tracking and when it is red we avoid the name/sector/asset class.

U.S. Equity indexes are positive now except for the Russell 2000. It continues to struggle and is at zero. The U.S. Dollar remains positive and some bond funds are negative. EEM which is emerging markets is above 0. However, HYG clicked into the red four weeks ago. We replaced CFT with LQD and that remains positive again this week. Remember what matters is the slope of the 50 day moving average not the 50 day moving average itself.

All charts are created from www.erlangerchartroom.com and if interested in using this indicator in Chart Room please feel free to send us an email by using the Contact Us section from the home page.

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Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)

Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) will report earnings before the open. There is still nice upside for this name.

 td

Market Matters: Futures Up Slightly

August 27, 2014

In After Hours Trading

No IPOs on deck this week so far. Secondaries on deck today MPAA. Tpyically, this is the lightest week of the year.

In After Hours Trading (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): HEI+.06, SLH-.10

IPO Financial provides our capital raise data.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: S&P 500 +0.50, Dow Jones +11 and NDX +1 with fair values lower helping gains. Asia and Europe mixed. Copper and silver lower and gold higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield -2. Prices as of 7:30 a.m.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by market cap descending): WDAY, WSM, BYI

Due Thursday morning (by market cap descending): TD, DG, PLL, SIG, COTY, ANF

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): SDRL+.52, TIF+.11, MIK+.06, DCI+.03, BF.B-.02.

$60 Trillion & IMF Scandal

Bloomberg reported this morning that the overall value of global equities has climbed above $66 trillion. Since August 7th low on the S&P 500, over $2.2 trillion has been added to the $66 trillion.

$66 Trillion

In other news IMF Head Christine Lagarde is under investigation in France for “murky business affairs” while France’s Finance Minister.

Lagarde

Tesoro (TSO)

Tesoro (TSO) has moved above its price target and looks toppy. We are selling this name in our Superstock Trader Morning Matters Portfolio Wednesday morning for a 17% gain since we recommended it on May 1st.
tso

Morning Matters Update

There will be no Madison Letter and Market Crash Indicators today due to vacation. Both will appear on Monday. We remain with our new long position in The Madison Letter. Maintain the existing allocation to SPY in Market Crash Indicators. Enjoy the weekend.