Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)

Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) reported earnings of $1.43 versus estimates of $1.37 this morning and raised guidance. The stock has been range bound for the last year. There is some nice upside to this name.

swk

The Madison Letter Current Update

Since inception, our overall timing return is 70.92% versus 39.92% on the S&P 500 for excess return of 31.00%.

We began to offer a buy and sell strategy via our Madison Market Timing Indicator at the beginning of April of 2007. There are now 22 open and closed winning trades to 8 closed losing trades with our market timing results. We closed longs on OIH FXI EEM and IYR for gains two weeks ago. We will be left with one long position TRF. We expected to see new ideas this past week but our model anticipated recent weakness and we remain on the sidelines.

madison market timing

Futures Lower

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck ContraFact, Innocoll AG, El Pollo Loco Holdings, Ocular Therapeutix, Orion Engineered Carbons S.A. and Advanced Drainage Systems. Secondaries on deck today include AGTC FPI GSJK LOAN .

IPO Financial provides our capital raise data.

In After Hours Trading (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): BIDU+.35, UHS+.30, BCR+.29, RGA+.26, SBAC+.16, CYN+.14, SIVB+.13, DLB+.11, V+.08, CBI+.08, PFG+.07, RFMD+.07, VRSN+.04, ALTR+.04, ALGN+.04, FSL+.03, FLEX+.03, N+.03, RSG+.02, IM+.02, FET+.02, LEG+.02, TPX-.02, MXIM-.05, KLAC-.06, VR-.08, AMZN-.12, CB-.19, WCG-.97

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: S&P 500 -2.50, Dow Jones -12 and NDX -10.50 with fair values flatish. Asia higher and Europe lower. Copper, silver and gold higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield +1. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by market cap descending): none

Due Monday morning (by market cap descending): CMI, WYNN, ROP, TSN, RPM, LECO, AHGP, TEN, ARLP, CMP, AWI

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

USA Today: Fox sells stakes in some European assets to raise cash for Time Warner purchase. China declares Qualcomm (QCOM) a monopoly.

NY Times: Losses pile up at Amazon (AMZN).

Index ETF Options Volume

Index ETF Options Volume

We are going to highlight unusual options activity as well going forward. The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. No stocks had unusual volume and excess put or call action. Volume is very light for such a volatile day.

[Image 1]

The rows in the options matrix are as follows:
  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volumed

Visa (V)

Visa (V) will report earnings this afternoon. There is still upside to this name until it hits the price target. It is priced for moderate gains.

 v

Weekly Charts Updated

Each week we highlight charts below of the SP500, Russell 2000, NASDAQ Composite, UUP, EEM, TLT, HYG and CFT. The charts use the 50 day moving average slope indicator. When it is green we like the instrument we are tracking and when it is red we avoid the name/sector/asset class.

U.S. Equity indexes are all positive now. The U.S. Dollar has turned positive and bond funds are positive. EEM which is emerging markets is above 0. However, bond funds just clicked into the red for HYG. We are replacing CFT with LQD. Remember what matters is the slope of the 50 day moving average not the 50 day moving average itself.

All charts are created from www.erlangerchartroom.com and if interested in using this indicator in Chart Room please feel free to send us an email by using the Contact Us section from the home page.

[Image 1]

 

Futures Higher

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck Immune Design, Mapi Pharma, Pfenex, Spark Energy, Townsquare Media, Intersect ENT. Secondaries on deck today include GOV NYLD.

IPO Financial provides our capital raise data.

In After Hours Trading (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): GILD+.56, HBI+.20, SLG+.18, CTXS+.17, TER+.13, QCOM+.10, CSGP+.10, FB+.10, RJF+.09, AIZ+.08, GGG+.08, ILMN+.07, CA+.05, ORLY+.05, NXPI+.04, UMPQ+.04, FFIV+.04, AVB+.03, PTC+.03, WFT+.03, MAC+.02, EFX+.02, OHI+.02, CCI-.03, TMK-.05, TEX-.05, TRIP-.06, AWH-.12, ALSN-.28, RE-.48

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: S&P 500 +4.50, Dow Jones +26 and NDX +13.50 with fair values flatish. Asia higher ex Japan and Europe higher. Copper higher with silver and gold lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield flat. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by market cap descending): AMZN, V, BIDU, SBUX, CB, CERN, PFG, SBAC, RSG, KLAC, BCR, ALTR, SRCL, UHS, MXIM, MTD, CBI, FSL, FLEX, VRSN, N, P, RGA, SIVB, IM, ITMN, LEG, DLB, ALGN, WRI, CYN, INFA, TPX, SWFT, VR, FET, WOOF, AWAY, RGC, FII, EPR.

Due Friday morning (by market cap descending): ABBV, LYB, COV, AON, AEP, TYC, MCO, XRX, DTE, SWK, LEA, IDXX, WBC, NS, AVY, PB, MOG.A, FNFG.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

USA Today: General Motors (GM) loss exceeds $1 billion due to recall. S&P 500 approaches 2000. FAA lifts flight restriction to Israel.

NY Times: Wind power grows in Texas. Obama Administration wants retroactive legislation on tax inversions. Facebook (FB) earnings driven by Mobile.

Index ETF Options Volume

Index ETF Options Volume

We are going to highlight unusual options activity as well going forward. The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. No stocks had unusual volume and excess put or call action. Volume is very light for such a volatile day.

 

[Image 1]

The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volumed

Futures Higher

In After Hours Trading

11 IPOs on deck including Medical Transcripion Billing. Secondaries on deck today include LIQT LJPC.

IPO Financial provides our capital raise data.

In After Hours Trading (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): CBST+.28, EA+.23, ACE+.19, FTI+.09, LLTC+.08, AAPL+.05, DFS+.05, BRCM+.04, RHI+.03, ACC+.03, VMW+.02, JNPR+.02, IEX+.02, ISRG-.03, MSFT-.05, EXP-.12.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: S&P 500 +2.50 Dow Jones +13 NDX +13.50 with fair values higher but still a very positive open. Asia and Europe higher. Copper lower with silver but gold higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is flat vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield flat. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by market cap descending): T, FB, QCOM, GILD, CCI, ILMN, AVB, WFT, NXPI, ORLY, TRIP, CA, SLG, CTXS, FLS, HBI, MAC, EFX, VAR, TSCO, FFIV, OII, RE, CLB, TMK, RJF, ETFC, ALSN, OHI, AIZ, CSGP, GGG, PTC, TEX, FTNT, TER, AWH, LHO, UMPQ, SLM, TQNT.

Due Thursday morning (by market cap descending): MMM, UNP, BMY, LLY, F, CELG, CAT, GM, PCP, ALXN, AAL, POT, RTN, WIT, NOK, NBL, TROW, HSY, KKR, RCI, LUV, ZMH, BSX, UAL, ABC, NUE, HOT, ECA, EQT, CAM, COG, UA, RCL, SIAL, CCE, DPS, O, WYN, CNX, DGX, IMS, CMS, ARG, DHI, WAB, PHM, JAH, NDAQ, DO, ALK, LAZ, RS, PTEN, FLIR, DNKN, EQM, ORI, GNTX, WCC, CAB, BMS, USG, DST, BC, CRI, GPK, PDS, DAN, TDY, BPOP, BKU, JBLU, FAF.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

USA Today: Secretary of State Kerry to Israel to produce a cease fire. Pepsi (PEP) beats and raises outlook. Microcap rollercoaster.

NY Times: The Federal Reserve is taking on Deutsche Bank on its oversight and reporting efforts.

Other News: Apple (AAPL) to face another class action employee lawsuit for violation of California law for lunch breaks, rest breaks and final paychecks.

 

Facebook (FB)

Facebook (FB) will report earnings this afternoon. There is no upside to this name until it hits the price target. It is priced for perfection.

 fb