Futures Up Slightly

May 22, 2015

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck today none of note. Secondaries on deck EOX FLT HSTM NVEE VGGL VWR.

In After Hours Trading: INTU+.11, ROST+.05, MRVL+.02, BRCD+.02, LGF-.02.

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P +0.50, Dow Jones +5, NDX +4 and Russell 2000 +1.10 with fair value mixed. Asia higher and Europe mixed.

Copper lower with silver and gold higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield -3. Prices as of 7:45 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by market cap descending): none of note.

Due Tuesday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): AZO, CAE.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

USA Today: Lumber Liquidators (LL) CEO resigned on Thursday. Hewlett Packard (HPQ) beat estimates by $0.02 and sold a China unit. Existing home sales came in weak yesterday.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): DE+.47, CPB+.10, FL+.06.

Current Morning missing: ANN, MENT, TNP.

Delta Airlines (DAL)

Delta Airlines (DAL) has seen its stock price fall from above $50 to a close of $43.75. So the $64,000 question is the stock price cheap yet?

dal

The Madison Letter Weekly Update

Since inception, our overall timing return is 83.20% versus 49.97% on the S&P 500 for excess return of 33.23%.

Madison scores on the major indexes are in a wide range from +11 to +14. Stocks and indexes have moved higher in the past week.

The range between the buy and sell points is now below average. As an example, the S&P 500 range was 54 points at the low and is now at 66. As volatility rises, this expands. Witness at the October low the range was 169 points.

Also, in tracking the range between the 2 year and 10 year moves from 140 basis points to 166. Short term rates are on the rise while long term have risen in the last week. This needs to be watched. There are implications.

There are now two open positions, a buy on TRF and a buy on USO.

We began to offer a buy and sell strategy via our Madison Market Timing Indicator at the beginning of April of 2007. There are now 24 open and closed winning trades to 8 closed losing trades with our market timing results. We were left with one long position TRF from our original buys before launching with Uncommon Widsom Daily. This column replaces the Morning Matters on Fridays.

Futures Lower

May 21, 2015

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck today Baozun, Community Health Trust, PGA Holdings and Shopify. Secondaries on deck AGEN D DRNA FATE MBUU NPTN SABR WAVX.

In After Hours Trading: SNPS+.05, WSM+.04, CRM+.02, NTAP-.07, YOKU-.15.

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P -2.50, Dow Jones -17, NDX -10 and Russell 2000 -1.80 with fair value mixed. Asia higher ex Hong Kong and Europe lower ex the U.K.

Copper,silver and gold higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield -2. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by market cap descending): HPQ, MRVL, GPS, BRCD, JMEI, WUBA, ARO, ROST, LGF, INTU, TC, DANG, DRC,TFM.

Due Friday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): DE, FL, CPB, ANN, MENT, TNP.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

USA Today: ISIS take control of Palmyra ruins. China demands U.S. plane leave island airspace. Fed concerned about future “taper tantrums”. Airline stocks fall on increased capacity in the fall.

Weekly Charts Updated

We are going to continue making Thursday our chart section in only Superstock Investor. That said, we are changing the format. Each Thursday in Wall Street Rebel we have moved to doing a Chart of The Week.

If you want to follow the S&P 500, then you will need to sign up for www.superstockinvestor.com at the website when subscriptions become available. Each week in Superstock we track the S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000, Emerging Markets (EEM), 20 Year Treasury (TLT), U.S. Dollar (UUP), High Yield Bonds (HYG) and Corporate Bonds (LQD). 

 Last week we looked at iShares Barclays 20 Year Bond Fund (TLT). The 50 day slope indicator did a nice job on predicting  the recent collapse. We were not a buyer at this point in time. 

tlt

 This week we look at the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) that withstood a quick drop below zero and is now turning up. Worth a look on the long side here. 

spy

Options Activity

We highlight unusual options activity where volume is heavy as well. The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. Alcatel Lucent (ALU) saw excess call action which leads me to believe a new bidder could emerge for the company. Huntsman Corp (HUN) saw excess put action as hedgie David Tepper added to his latest holdings. Put sellers?                    [Image 1]

                     The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volume

Shutterfly (SFLY)

Shutterfly (SFLY) is slowly but surely clawing its way out of the gutter after hitting a low of $40 back in January. That said, there is still a great of upside left in the this name before its price target is hit.

sfly

Futures Flat

May 20, 2015

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck today Black Knight Financial Services and Shopify. Secondaries on deck ESNT LOCO MNTA NCLH PCTY XEC.

In After Hours Trading: QIHU+.09, CSC+.06, KEYS+.05,HEI+.04, ADSK+.02, NDSN-.06, VSAT-.06, ETSY-.84.

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P -0.75, Dow Jones +0, NDX +1.50 and Russell 2000 +0.50 with fair value mixed. Asia higher ex Hong Kong and Europe lower ex the U.K.

Copper lower with silver and gold higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield +3. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by market cap descending): CRM, NTAP, YOKU, LB, WSM, BOX, SNPS, EGHT, RXN.

Due Thursday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): BBY, TSL, DLTR, PDCO, AAP, NM, SHLD, BAH, DCI, TTC.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

USA Today: President Obama calls climate change a national security threat. UBS to pay $54 million in fines on manipulation probe. Oil pipeline breaks off California coast, near Santa Barbara.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Options Activity

We highlight unusual options activity where volume is heavy as well. The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. Peabody Energy (BTU) saw excess call action to no avail as it dropped -4.33%. Huntsman Corp (HUN) saw excess put action as hedgie David Tepper added to his latest holdings. Put sellers?                                                                                           [Image 1]

                     The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volume

Salesforce.com (CRM)

Salesforce.com (CRM) will report earnings after the close. Estimates are for earnings of $0.14 versus $0.11. Decent growth but not enough for such a high priced stock. The stock is well above its price target and only fractionally below its upper limit. For now we would eschew this name.

crm