Microsoft (MSFT)

Microsoft (MSFT) will report earnings this afternoon. There is not much upside to this name until it hits the price target.

msft

Portfolio Update

The S&P 500 was a bit lower since our last update albeit -0.18%. The Nasdaq Composite has pulled back for the fourth week in a row losing -0.35%. The portfolio is still 75% invested long, 0% short and 25% in cash, net long 75%. We are now at a value of 800.24% from 827.35% last Tuesday.

We have added the price target from the Alpha Intelligence Stock Scorecard into the weekly update. All stocks are well below their price targets. ETFs recommendations can be found in The Madison Letter. In 2014, this will be updated each Friday with Market Crash Indicators.

Remember these returns are total returns with the average change for all winners and losers is 7.27% per idea. Our batting average of closed winners and losers is 70%. The portfolio is up 800.24% through last week from inception when it began at 0% in April of 2008. We began 2013 at a value of 478.60% so we had a very nice gain for 2013 ending at 732.40%. So far this year we are up 67.92 points or 10.74%. The performance on the Uncommon Wisdom Daily Portfolio Tracker is a bit higher due to dividends which they add in. We have never added in dividends so our results are understated.

The Russell 2000 is now lagging the S&P 500 on a daily basis.

Futures Higher

In After Hours Trading

11 IPOs on deck including El Pollo Loco Holdings. Secondaries on deck today include CBAY FANG.

IPO Financial provides our capital raise data.

In After Hours Trading (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): CMG+.41, ZION+.11, WWD+.08, PKG+.06, CNI+.04, TXN+.03, APAM+.02, ATR-.03, BRO-.03

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: S&P 500 +6.50 Dow Jones +51 NDX +14.50 with fair values higher but still a very positive open. Asia and Europe higher. Copper higher with silver and gold lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield +2. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by market cap descending): AAPL, MSFT, VMW, ACE, DFS, BRCM, ISRG, FTI, XLNX, HTZ, EA, JNPR, LLTC, NBR, RHI, IEX, TSS, CBST, EXP, ACC

Due Wednesday morning (by market cap descending): PEP, BA, BIIB, DOW, EMC, SPG, ABB, TMO, GD, FCX, PX, NSC, DAL, APD, NOC, TEL, APH, CHKP, WHR, BEAV, STM, GRA, NYCB, OCR, SEIC, HCBK, RES, R, OC, ROL, TUP, SLGN, FDML

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

USA Today: Israel hits 5 mosques in Gaza. Interview with IMAX CEO Geifond. Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman pledges to crush Herbalife (HLF). 9 stocks to avoid, Chipotle (CMG) cranks out strong earnings.

Other News: European leaders discuss arms embargo against Russia.

 

Index ETF Options Volume

Index ETF Options Volume

 We are going to highlight unusual options activity as well going forward. The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. No stocks had unusual volume and excess put or call action. Volume is very light for such a volatile day.

 [Image 1]

The rows in the options matrix are as follows:
  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volumed

Halliburton (HAL)

 Halliburton (HAL) will report earnings this morning. There is no upside to this name.

 hal

The Week Ahead

1.Geopolitical and Fiscal Events Thursday sees the IMF give its latest world economic outlook.

2.Economic Releases. Releases of note this week other than the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and jobless claims include CPI, existing home sales, new home sales and durable goods.

 

3.Earnings Releases. Notable releases include (in order of day’s reporting with Monday first and Friday last) HAL CNI AAPL MSFT T FB AMZN V ABBV LYB among others companies as we continue Q1 earnings. See the earnings section.

4.Company, Analyst and Regulatory Meetings: CPB SCHW.

 

Futures Down

In After Hours Trading

11 IPOs on deck including El Pollo Loco Holdings. Secondaries on deck CBAY LIQT LOAN.

IPO Financial provides our capital raise data.

In After Hours Trading (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): none

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: S&P 500 -4.50 Dow Jones -41 NDX -3.50 with fair values higher hurting the open. Asia and Europe lower. Copper lower with silver and gold higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and flat vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield no change. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by market cap descending): CNI, TXN, NFLX, CMG, CCK, PKG, WCN, ZION, CDNS, BRO, ATR, STLD, HXL, POL, ELS, WWD

Due Tuesday morning (by market cap descending): VZ, KO, CMCSA, UTX, MCD, MO, DD, LMT, CS, KMB, TRV, STT, PLD, ARMH, MJN, OMC, AMTD, IR, HOG, RF, TCK, COL, PII, WAT, CIT, GCI, HUB.B, AOS, SBNY, LPT, CSL, ATI, CNC, BTU, PACW, DPZ, EDU, SNV, FMER

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

USA Today: Gaza conflict sees bloodiest day. China supplier sold McDonalds and KFC expired meat. Dr. Doom Marc Faber sounds warning bell again. Colorado underestimated pot demand.

NY Times: Pressure rises on Russian President Putin. Whirlpool (WHR) pushes Congress to ban class action suits tied to Energy Star Program.

Index ETF Options Volume

Index ETF Options Volume

 We are going to highlight unusual options activity as well going forward. The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. SPY had unusual volume and saw very heavy put action. Today is an extreme day where put action was way too one sided and was probably due to options expiration on Friday.

[Image 1]

The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volumed

Futures On The Rebound

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck today Globant SA, Microlin Bio, Medical Transcription Billing, Pfenex, Sage Therapeutics, TerraFrom Power, Trupanion, TubeMogul. Secondaries on deck today include TGP. IPO Financial provides our capital raise data.

In After Hours Trading (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): CE+.23, COF+.20, CYT+.18, ATHN+.10, PBCT+.04, SWKS+.03, SLB+.02, CPHD+.02, GOOG-.15. AMD off sharply in after hours on guidance.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: S&P 500 +2 Dow Jones +2 NDX +8.30 with fair values lower adding to the open. Asia and Europe lower. Copper,silver and gold lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield +3. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by market cap descending): none

Due Monday morning (by market cap descending): HAL, PHG, BBT, STI, GPC, HAS, MAN, NVR, LII, SIX

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

USA Today: 401Ks to record highs. Federal Express (FDX) charged with trafficking drugs. Fox bid could unleash wave of media mergers.

NY Times: Russia remains in denial over downing of airliner. Microsoft to lay off 18,000 workers due to Nokia merger.

Other News: Amazon (AMZN) to offer unlimited Kindle for $9.99.

The Madison Letter Updated

We began to offer a buy and sell strategy via our Madison Market Timing Indicator at the beginnging of April of 2007. There are now 22 open and closed winning trades to 8 closed losing trades with our market timing results. We closed longs on OIH FXI EEM and IYR for gains last week. We will be left with one long position TRF. We expected to see new ideas this past week but our model anticipated yesterday’s weakness and we remain on the sidelines.

 madison l