Full Review of Charts!

Each week we highlight charts below of the SP500, Russell 2000, NASDAQ Composite, UUP, EEM, TLT, HYG and LQD. The charts use the 50 day moving average slope indicator. When it is green we like the instrument we are tracking and when it is red we avoid the name/sector/asset class.

This past week there was lots of volatility and markets moved lower. All asset classes are lower except for the TLT, the U.S. 20 year Treasury and the U.S. Dollar. All other markets are in defensive mode. Remember what matters is the slope of the 50 day moving average not the 50 day moving average itself. As mentioned above, bond holders should be defensive for the time being. That said, we note the dollar is in rally mode.

All charts are created from www.erlangerchartroom.com and if interested in using this indicator in Chart Room please feel free to send us an email by using the Contact Us section from the home page.

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Charts courtesy of www.erlangerchartroom.com

 

Cooper Companies (COO)

Cooper Companies (COO) will report after the close and estimates are for $1.95 versus $2.00. The stock is at its price target. Other names look more appealing in the health care space.

coo

SSI Alt Options Activity

We highlight unusual options activity with unusual volume activity The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. No names saw call action jump as it moved lower by -4.13%. Ariad (ARIA) saw excess put action as rumors surfaced that no pending merger is in the air.

                                                      [Image 1]

                     The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volume

Weekly Portfolio Update

The S&P 500 is lower by -7.05% from -9.29% last wek for the year. The Nasdaq Composite moves back above 4600 and the Dow moves back above 16000 and both are also lower for the year, by -2.11% from -9.90% respectively.

The portfolio is now 58% invested long, 0% short and 42% in cash, net long 58%. We are now at a value of 959.44% from 940.25% through Tuesday’s close. We finished 2014 at a value of 951.10 up 29.86% for that year. Our current value is 959.44% which puts the portfolio up 0.87% for 2015 without dividends which is huge outperformance to stocks.

Below are the year by year results on a cumulative and absolute basis: 

ssi ytd

It appears for now that 1900 from 1850 on the S&P 500 has become support. We are now at 1913.61 which is higher than a week ago. A big test for the week is to see if the S&P 500 can get above 1950 then above 2000 and stay there. If that does not happen and we break 1900, then the risk is 1850 and then 1800.

We have added the price target from the Stock Scorecard into the weekly update. Names above price targets are highlighted in yellow. We will remain with these names as well until technical violations begin.

ETFs recommendations can be found in The Madison Letter. In 2014, this will be updated each Friday with Market Crash Indicators.

Remember these returns are total returns with the average change for all winners and losers is 8.42% per idea. Our batting average of closed winners and losers is 69%. The portfolio is up to a value of 959.44% and from inception when it began at 0% in April of 2008.

The performance on the Uncommon Wisdom Daily Portfolio Tracker was a bit higher due to dividends which they added in. We have never added in dividends so our weekly results are understated since 2008.

The Russell 2000 is now beating the S&P 500 on a daily basis.

Hanger (HGR)

Hanger (HGR) will report earnings after the close. Estimates are for $0.45 versus $$0.62. The stock has been hit hard with the market weakness as it is lower by almost $10. There is some considerable upside for this name.

hgr

SSI Options Activity

We are going to highlight unusual options activity as well going forward. The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. No names saw unusual put action. No names saw excess call action today.  Overall put volume dropped as investors are getting tired the volatility.

                                                       [Image 1]

                     The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volume

Bob Evans Farms (BOBE)

Bob Evans Farms (BOBE) was doing fine until it blew earnings in early March. Since then, the stock has fallen from $60 to its current level of $45.19 is a low in August at $42.50. So is the stock worth nibbling on now?

bobe

SSI Options Activity

We highlight unusual options activity with unusual volume activity The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) saw call action jump as it moved higher by 0.11% and is up in futures on a weaker China PMI number. Yahoo (YHOO) saw excess put action again as continues to remain weak thanks to its core position in Alibaba (BABA)

                                                      [Image 1]

                     The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volume

Futures Lower But Off The Lows

August 31, 2015

In After Hours Trading

IPOs On Deck this week none of note. Secondaries on deck this week MBVX.

In After Hours Trading: none of note.

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P -15.00, Dow Jones -130, NDX -26 and Russell 2000 -6.30 with fair value lower lessening the pain. Asia mixed and Europe lower today with the U.K. bucking the trend and rising.

Copper,silver and gold lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield -2. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Leaders yesterday included Utilities. Over the last week, the leader is Utilities. Over the last month the leader is Utilities. Over the last three months the leader is Healthcare. Six month and one year leader is Healthcare. YTD leader is Healthcare.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): BV.

Due Tuesday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): DLTR DCI.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

USA Today: Over the weekend, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer hinted at a pending interest rate increase. How should investors interpret last weeks selloff and then bounce.

Bloomberg: Stocks sees worst month since 2012. Disinflation remains a problem from Central Banks. Mohamed El-Erian sees jobs as key to Federal Reserve action in September.

The Week Ahead

1.Geopolitical and Fiscal Events. Tuesday sees Federal Reserve Boston President Rosengren speak and the RBA announces its latest interest rate decision. Wednesday sees the Federal Reserve issue its latest Beige Book Survey. Also, on Wednesday Russian President Putin visits China. The European Central Bank meets and is expected to hold interest rates steady. Thursday sees Japanese Prime Minister Abe visit China. Friday sees Federal Reserve Richmond President Lacker speak as does Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Kocherlakota. Also, on Friday the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet.

2.Economic Releases. Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and Chicago PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing, factory orders, ADP Payroll, Challenger Gray & Christmas Job Cuts, nonfarm payroll and the unemployment rate.

3.Earnings Releases. Notable releases include DLTR HRB QIHU DCI NAV GIII MDT CPB COO MRVL.