Futures Higher

July 2, 2015

In After Hours Trading

IPOs On Deck this morning Natera (NTRA). Secondaries on deck today none of note.

In After Hours Trading: FDO -.07.

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P +2.75, Dow Jones +24, NDX +7.75 and Russell 2000 +1.90 with fair value a tad lower. Asia higher ex Shanghai which lost -3.41% and Europe mixed.

Copper,silver and gold lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures bouncing higher after yesterday’s weakness. Natural Gas is higher. $ is flat vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield +2. Prices as of 7:45 a.m. EDT.

All Sectors higher ex Conglomerates that fell -0.9% yesterday. For the month, only Healthcare is higher 0.7%.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by market cap descending): none of note.

Due Monday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): none of note.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

USA Today: Donald Trump tells the world “I love Mexican People”. Lowdown on the Greek Crisis. Greek Prime Minister says a “No” vote does not mean an exit from the Euro. What investors should know for July. Apple (AAPL) watch sales lagging.

Bloomberg: Greek Finance Minister states he will quit if Greece votes for austerity. Cash buyers vanish from the U.S. housing market. Gold hits a three month low. Lowest paid Americans see wages rise. Oil dropped the most since April yesterday.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): none of note.

Current Morning missing: none of note.

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1928 stocks rise and 1181 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1496 rise and 1322 fall.

The SP 500 is back below its 50 day exponential moving average and is still above the 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is back below its 50 day moving exponential average and is still above its 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth has moved back to cash. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is still invested.

YTD 3849 (-229 stocks are higher for the year and 3010 (-277) are lower. Updated 6/1/15 Close. Prior Update 5/04/15 close.

Economics

June Nonfarm Payrolls are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to 237,500 from 280,000 and the unemployment rate is expected to drop to 5.4% from 5.5%.

At 10:00 a.m. EDT, May Factory Orders are expected to improve to -0.3% from -0.4%.

Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Politico

Greek Referendum (i.e. the Greferendum) will be held on Sunday. Post vote, the Troika will relook at aid to Greece.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings or announcements of note today DAL.

Conference of Note

Conferences have ground to a halt as we prepare for the Fourth of July weekend.

M & A News

Centene (CNC) to buy Health Net (HNT) for $78.57 a share in cash and stock. A 21% premium.

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs WRK
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup KIM DFT
Merrill Lynch
Wachovia/Wells Fargo GTS
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
Stifel
Sterne Agee TOWR
Jefferies

China Needs To Be Watched

Chinese stock markets have gotten very volatile in the past several weeks. Stocks could be up 6% and then down 5% the next minute. We found a great article from CNN Money on this subject and how we should react as investors.

China

Chubb (CB)

What was Chubb (CB) worth? Wednesday saw Ace Limited (ACE) bid for the company. Did they overpay? The deal is complicated as a combination of cash and ACE share. The bottomline is CB shareholders will get about $122 a share. The stock jumped from $95 to $119. Our upper bound is $127. Which means that ACE is paying full price for this deal.

cb

Futures Higher

July 1, 2015

In After Hours Trading

IPOs On Deck this week CNX Coal Resources LP and ConforMIS. Secondaries on deck today ESES TDOC UFAB.

In After Hours Trading: none of note.

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P +15.25, Dow Jones +142, NDX +35.50 and Russell 2000 +8.40 with fair value a tad lower. Asia higher ex Shanghai which lost -4.92% and Europe higher.

Copper higher, silver higher and gold lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield +5. Prices as of 7:35 a.m. EDT.

All Sectors higher ex Conglomerates that fell -0.9% yesterday. For the month, only Healthcare is higher 0.7%.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by market cap descending): none of note.

Due Thursday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): none of note.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

USA Today: How Puerto Rico’s debt crisis reminds us of Detroit’s crisis. FBI looks into damage of multiple internet lines in the San Francisco Bay Area. Apple (AAPL) found guilty of price fixing as a federal appeals court upheld a ruling against the tech company, fine $450 million.

Bloomberg: Greek Prime Minister Tspiras in a letter to the Troika accepted creditor terms but sticking point remain on pension and tax discounts. EU Creditors still view the Greek Referendum as an issue to a deal. U.N. Atomic Chief to visit Iran as nuclear talks gain momentum. U.S. recovery in its seventh year could become the longest on record.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): MKC+.07, GIS+.04, STZ+.02.

Current Morning missing: AYI PAYX.

A Greek Deal?

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has “reportedly” said “no mas”. We will see as he has become the boy who cried wolf.

Tspiras Capitulates

Futures are higher as a result.

Alcoa (AA)

Alcoa (AA) will kick off earnings season next Wednesday. Estimates are $0.23 versus $0.18. Decent growth with revenues of $5.821 billion. The stock has been cut from $17.50 last Novemnber to its current price of $11.15 and it is still overvalued. Avoid for now.

aa

Why Mistakes Are Brilliant

One of the people I follow on Twitter is Richard Millman. He is one of the top squash coaches in the U.S. and several years ago came to Madison to teach a clinic. I learned a ton from him. This morning he posted on his Twitter feed an article about why mistakes help all of us.

The 3 Fs

Each morning we post in Superstock Investor a section called Articles That Matter. Today we are posting this section here for your review.

Stock Scorecard: General Mills (GIS)

General Mills (GIS) will report earnings before the open tomorrow. Estimates are $0.71 versus $0.67. There is some decent upside for this food conglomerate that is a staple of American homes.

gis

Unusual Options Activity

We highlight unusual options activity where volume is heavy as well. The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. Peabody Energy (BTU)saw excess call action as the Supreme Court ruled yesterday in favor of the coal industry. SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) saw excess put action as moves back towards the March lows.

                                                     [Image 1]

                                                     [Image 2]

                     The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volume

Futures Lower But Well Off The Lows

June 29, 2015

In After Hours Trading

IPOs On Deck this week CNX Coal Resources LP, ConforMIS, LoanCore Realty Trust, Natera, Teladoc and Unique Fabricating. Secondaries on deck this week NRX PIRS.

In After Hours Trading: none of note.

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P +3.75, Dow Jones +37, NDX +3.25 and Russell 2000 +2.10 with fair value a tad lower. Asia lower and Europe lower.

Copper and silver lower and gold higher. WTI Crude lower and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield +1. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

All Sectors higher ex Conglomerates that fell -0.9% yesterday. For the month, only Healthcare is higher 0.7%.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by market cap descending): APOL.

Due Monday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): CAG SCHN.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

USA Today: How will the U.S> react to Greece? Global markets slump on Greece bank holiday and upcoming Referendum. Interview with JetBlue (JBLU) CEO. How to rebalance your 401(k).

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): none of note.

Current Morning missing: none of note.