Futures Lower But Well Off The Lows

June 29, 2015

In After Hours Trading

IPOs On Deck this week CNX Coal Resources LP, ConforMIS, LoanCore Realty Trust, Natera, Teladoc and Unique Fabricating. Secondaries on deck this week NRX PIRS.

In After Hours Trading: none of note.

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P +3.75, Dow Jones +37, NDX +3.25 and Russell 2000 +2.10 with fair value a tad lower. Asia lower and Europe lower.

Copper and silver lower and gold higher. WTI Crude lower and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield +1. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

All Sectors higher ex Conglomerates that fell -0.9% yesterday. For the month, only Healthcare is higher 0.7%.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by market cap descending): APOL.

Due Monday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): CAG SCHN.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

USA Today: How will the U.S> react to Greece? Global markets slump on Greece bank holiday and upcoming Referendum. Interview with JetBlue (JBLU) CEO. How to rebalance your 401(k).

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): none of note.

Current Morning missing: none of note.

Update On Greece

This weekend saw rather amazing actions by both Greece and its creditors. This morning The Guardian has a good review the current situtation in Greece. Worth the read if you want an understanding of what is going on in the ground in Greece.

Greek Update

SSI Options Activity

We highlight unusual options activity where volume is heavy as well. The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. QIHU (QIHU) saw excess call action as it tries to hold $65. Is management still going to pay $77 for the company. JC Penney (JCP) saw excess put action as moves back towards the May highs.

                                                     [Image 1]

                                                     [Image 2]

                     The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volume

The Week Ahead

1.Geopolitical and Fiscal Events. Monday sees the leaders of the European Union and China meet in Brussels. Also, on Monday the United Nations Security Council meets on Syria. Tuesday sees Greece bailout package expiring and Iran faces a deadline over its nuclear program. Tuesday also sees Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff meet with President Obama in Washington. Last on Tuesday Federal Reserve St. Louis President Bullard speaks at night.

2.Economic Releases. Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and Chicago PMI, consumer confidence, construction spending, ISM manufacturing, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate and factory orders.

3.Earnings Releases. Notable releases include ANFI APOL CAG SCHN AYI GIS STZ ISCA

Futures Higher

June 26, 2015

In After Hours Trading

IPOs On Deck today Alarm.com (ALRM), Ap[pfolio (APPF), CNX Coal Resources (CNXC), Green Plains Partners LP (GPP), Seres Therapeutics (MCRB), Xactly (XTLY), Yulong Eco-Materials (YECO). Secondaries on deck today ALDR GRBK NNBR PIRS SOHO WEN.

In After Hours Trading: NKE +.15 SNX +.02 MU -.02.

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P +3.75, Dow Jones +37, NDX +3.25 and Russell 2000 +2.10 with fair value a tad lower. Asia lower and Europe lower.

Copper and silver lower and gold higher. WTI Crude lower and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield +1. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

All Sectors higher ex Conglomerates that fell -0.9% yesterday. For the month, only Healthcare is higher 0.7%.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by market cap descending): none of note.

Due Monday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): none of note.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

USA Today: In France, a man was decapitated in a potential Islamist attack. Chinese stocks see big decline on Friday, -7%. Winners and losers in Obamacare. Apple (AAPL) iPhone on T-Mobile (TMUS) network being hit by blue screen of death.

FLASH ALERT: Potential 5 month extension for Greece proposed by creditors.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): FINL +.06.

Current Morning missing: none of note.

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1106 stocks rise and 1974 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1298 rise and 1526 fall.

The SP 500 is back below its 50 day exponential moving average and is still above the 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is back above its 50 day moving exponential average and is still above its 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth has moved back to invested. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is still invested.

YTD 3849 (-229 stocks are higher for the year and 3010 (-277) are lower. Updated 6/1/15 Close. Prior Update 5/04/15 close.

Economics

June Michigan Sentiment is released and expected to rise to 95 from 94.80.

Politico

The European Union leaders meet in Brussels through the weekend. Greece negotiations continue at this meetings.

Federal Reserve Kansas City President George speaks at 12:45 p.m. EDT.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings or announcements of note today none of note.

Conference of Note

Laser World of Photonics. Red Hat Summit.

M & A News

Rumors surfaced yesterday from The Wall Street Journal that Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) might make a bid for Zoetis (ZTS).

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup
Merrill Lynch
Wachovia/Wells Fargo HCA CYH THC
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
Stifel
Sterne Agee UNH
Jefferies
Cowen
Needham
Raymond James NSIT
Piper Jaffray
Friedman Billings
Topeka Capital
Sanford C. Bernstein ARMH
Robert W. Baird
Credit Agricole
Sun Trust RH KFRC

One Down & One To Go

Yesterday the Supreme Court ruled that the Affordable Cara Act (ACA) or Obamacare could continue as is. The market was concerned about this outcome and now this has been removed has a potential negative catalyst.

What The Supreme Court Ruling Means

If Obamacare had been shut down in thirty some states and 6 million people kicked out of their insurance program, then chaos would have happened.

Hopefully, issue number two, Greece, can be worked out over the weekend. Then it could be off to the races for the S&P 500 as it plays catch up to the Russell 2000.

This article appears in Superstock Investor this morning and we are adding to the mix.

 

The Madison Letter: Weekly Update

Since inception, our overall timing return is 80.75% versus 47.96% on the S&P 500 for excess return of 32.78%.

Madison scores on the major indexes are in a wide range from -5 to +9. Stocks and indexes had moved higher in the past week but gave up the ghost the past two days.

The range between the buy and sell points is now below average. As an example, the S&P 500 range was 54 points at the low and is now at 56 which is falling. As volatility rises, this expands. Witness at the October low the range was 169 points. Currently, volatility has collapsed despite what you might read in the press.

Also, in tracking the range between the 2 year and 10 year moves from 170 basis points to 172. Short term rates are on the rise while long term have fallen in the last week. This needs to be watched. There are implications.

We began to offer a buy and sell strategy via our Madison Market Timing Indicator at the beginning of April of 2007. There are now 24 open and closed winning trades to 8 closed losing trades with our market timing results. This column replaces the Morning Matters on Fridays.

SSI Options Activity

We highlight unusual options activity where volume is heavy as well. The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. Dow Chemical (DOW)saw excess call action as it tries to breakout to a new high for 2015, impressive in a down tape. Vale (VALE) saw excess put action as moves back towards the April lows.

                                                     [Image 1]

                     The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volume

Futures Higher

June 25, 2015

In After Hours Trading

IPOs On Deck today Appfolio (APPF), Catabasis Pharma (CATB), CNX Coal Resources LP (CNXC), Glaukos (GKOS), Gener8 Maritime (GNRT), Lantheus Holdings (LNTH), Milacron Holdings (MCRN), TransUnion (TRU), Wayne Farms (WNFM) and Yulong Eco-Materials. Secondaries on deck today BPMX DPRX SBRA SEMI.

In After Hours Trading: none of note.

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P 7.25, Dow Jones +69, NDX +16.75 and Russell 2000 +4 with fair value a tad higher cutting into gains. Asia mixed and Europe lower.

Copper and silver lower and gold higher. WTI Crude lower and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield +3. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

All Sectors higher ex Conglomerates that fell -0.9% yesterday. For the month, only Healthcare is higher 0.7%.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by market cap descending): MU NKE DRC SNX.

Due Friday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): FINL.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

USA Today: Europe offers Greece a take it or leave it debt offer. Remaining cases at Supreme Court due by Monday. Disney (DIS) ups dividend by 15%.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): CMC +.19 ACN +.07.

Current Morning missing: BKS SJR.

Weekly Charts Updated

We are going to continue making Thursday our chart section in only Superstock Investor. That said, we are changing the format. Each Thursday in Wall Street Rebel we have moved to doing a Chart of The Week.

If you want to follow the S&P 500, then you will need to sign up for www.superstockinvestor.com at the website when subscriptions become available. Each week in Superstock we track the S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000, Emerging Markets (EEM), 20 Year Treasury (TLT), U.S. Dollar (UUP), High Yield Bonds (HYG) and Corporate Bonds (LQD). 

 Last week we looked at Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) that we noted was just starting to turn higher. It has continued to move up. 

1

This week we look at the TLT which is mired in a nasty downtrend. There appears to be more trouble ahead. 

2