Weekly Charts Updated

Each week we highlight charts below of the SP500, Russell 2000, NASDAQ Composite, UUP, EEM, TLT, HYG and LQD. The charts use the 50 day moving average slope indicator. When it is green we like the instrument we are tracking and when it is red we avoid the name/sector/asset class.

The S&P 500 is still in the green despite the chaotic volatility. The S&P 500 is above 0 on our indicator but still below the actual 50 day moving average. Charts are created from www.erlangerchartroom.com and if interested in using this indicator in Chart Room please feel free to send us an email by using the Contact Us section from the home page. 

1

Portfolio Update

The big story of our portfolio this past year is that it is a safe portfolio but yet we have a pharmaceutical/biotech stock in Bristol Myers Squibb(BMY)and a large cap biotech stock Celgene (CELG) that are making you lots of money. These two names helped us to get to almost a 30% return for the year.

We bought Celgene (CELG) at $77.66 on June 4th and it is now at $123.25. That is a 58.70% gain folks. Most sellside firm have raised price targets to $140 to $150. With numbers like that, we are getting close to a 100% return in a year.

Bristol Myers is gaining on Celgene as it is now up 21.95% in less than six months as it was bought on July 30th. Sure there are lots of “Johnny Come Latelies” on Bristol Myers but we made the tough call to get in when no one wanted to own it. Even Jim “Bristol Myers” Cramer hated the stock in late July. Of course, he loves it now.

James and I believe that our process trumps others because our technical measures allow us to enter a stock before others see improvement in the charts. With the recent weakness, we are going to find other stocks like Bristol Myers.

Be careful of buying into names recommended that have already moved a big percentage. Many times such names will see 10-25% pullbacks after a big run in a matter of weeks. Now on to our weekly review.

The S&P 500 has moved lower for a third week in a row. The Nasdaq Composite fell as well. The good news is we are still making money despite the drop in the indexes. The portfolio is now 75% invested long, 0% short and 25% in cash, net long 75%. We are now at a value of 956.70% from 954.65% from last Tuesday. We finished the year at a value of 951.10 up 29.86% for the year. Our current value is 956.70% which puts us up 5.60% or 0.58%. This is an abbreviated update due to travel and limited computer capabilities.

Below are the year by year results on a cumulative and absolute basis:

ssi returns

It appears for the time being that 2000 on the S&P 500 has become support and 2050 is resistance. This is where we were last week so no change.

The Week Ahead

1.Geopolitical and Fiscal Events. Tuesday sees President Obama give his State of the Union Address. Also, on Tuesday the World Economic Forum begins in Davos, Switzerland. Wednesday sees the Bank of Japan announce its latest rate decision. Thursday sees the ECB announce its latest interest rate decision.

2.Economic Releases. Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and NAHB Housing Index, Housing Starts, Leading Indicators and Existing Home Sales.

3.Earnings Releases. Notable releases include JNJ IBM UNH AXP VZ UNP GE MCD(this is a very light week for earnings with only earnings on Monday and Tuesday). See the earnings section.

Weekly Charts Updated

Each week we highlight charts below of the SP500, Russell 2000, NASDAQ Composite, UUP, EEM, TLT, HYG and LQD. The charts use the 50 day moving average slope indicator. When it is green we like the instrument we are tracking and when it is red we avoid the name/sector/asset class. 

1

The S&P 500 is still in the green despite the chaotic volatility. HYG clicked into the red too many weeks ago and is still there. Much has been written about high yield and the fact it owns many energy bonds. It ended its free fall but may be starting a new leg down. Remember what matters is the slope of the 50 day moving average not the 50 day moving average itself. 

2

All charts are created from www.erlangerchartroom.com and if interested in using this indicator in Chart Room please feel free to send us an email by using the Contact Us section from the home page.

The Only Easy Day Was Yesterday

This is NOT a good start to the year. Therefore, we felt it was important to weigh in with some thoughts this morning instead of posting our weekly charts.

On Wednesday, we closed our recommendation of Visa (V) in the Morning Matters Portfolio. The gain was nice, 23% based on the closing price Wednesday morning. We were itching to sell this name given that we were able to hold it for over a year and reduce one’s tax bill if in a taxable account.

We may do the same on Red Hat (RHT) if it breaks $65 as we have held it over a year, first recommended on September 17, 2013. Then we have several week to see Costco (COST) become a long term gain.

The goal of the Morning Matters Portfolio has always been to have low turnover. If, however, if we think a greater than 10% correction is coming, then we may increase sells and raise turnover. You have been put on notice because we are seeing some things we do not like in the least.

The first is that intraday action has seen only extremes intraday until Tuesday’s close. By this, I mean that either the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 finish their day below the Erlanger Valuelines support or resistance level. Tuesday saw all indexes noted above close between resistance and pivot.

That streak proved fleeting as Wednesday saw the Dow Jones failed to close above support. So much for a new trends starting. No such luck….

For the complete article we direct you to www.superstockinvestor.com

Portfolio Update

The S&P 500 has moved lower for a second week in a row. The Nasdaq Composite fell as well. The good news is we are still making money despite the drop in the indexes. The portfolio is still 84% invested long, 0% short and 16% in cash, net long 84%. We are now at a value of 954.65% from last Tuesday. We finished the year at a value of 951.10 up 29.86% for the year. Our current value is 954.65% which puts us up 3.55% or 0.37%.

Below are the year by year results on a cumulative and absolute basis:

ssi yearly

It appears for the time being that 2000 on the S&P 500 has become support and 2050 is resistance. This is where we were last week.

Remember these returns are total returns with the average change for all winners and losers is 8.45% per idea. Our batting average of closed winners and losers is 72%. The portfolio is up 954.65% and from inception when it began at 0% in April of 2008. We began 2013 at a value of 478.60% so we had a very nice gain for 2013 ending at 732.40%. For 2014 we were up 218.70 points or 29.86%. The performance on the Uncommon Wisdom Daily Portfolio Tracker is a bit higher due to dividends which they add in. We have never added in dividends so our weekly results are understated since 2008.

The Russell 2000 is beating the S&P 500 on a daily basis.

The Week Ahead

1. Geopolitical and Fiscal Events. Monday sees Federal Reserve Atlanta President Lockhart speak about monetary policy at 1:00 p.m. EST. Tuesday sees President Obama meet with Congressional Leaders. Also, Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Kocherlakota speaks about monetary policy after the close. Wednesday sees Federal Reserve Philadelphia President Plosser speak at 1:00 p.m. EST. Also, the Federal Reserve releases its latest Beige Book. Friday sees Federal Reserve St. Louis President Bullard speak about U.S. monetary policy.

2.Economic Releases. Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and retail sales, PPI, Philadelphia Fed Survey, CPI, industrial production and Michigan Sentiment.

3.Earnings Releases. Notable releases include AA SNX CSX LLTC WFC JPM BAC INTC GS PNC (this is a very light week for earnings with only earnings on Monday and Tuesday).

The Madison Letter

Since inception, our overall timing return is 77.29% versus 45.14% on the S&P 500 for excess return of 32.16%.

The interesting nuances that have existed for the past few weeks have gone away. First the range between the buy and sell points has widened again. As an example, the S&P 500 range was 68 points and is now 155 points. As volatility rises, this expands. Witness at the October low the range was 169 points. Also, in tracking the range between the 2 year and 10 year we have seen the spread narrow by 39 basis points since October. The spread is now 141 basis points. This is a big drop for a couple month period. Short term rates are on the rise while long term are not. This needs to be watched. There are implications.

We began to offer a buy and sell strategy via our Madison Market Timing Indicator at the beginning of April of 2007. There are now 24 open and closed winning trades to 8 closed losing trades with our market timing results. We were left with one long position TRF from our original buys before launching with Uncommon Widsom Daily. This column replaces the Morning Matters on Fridays.

madison market timiing

Weekly Charts Updated

Each week we highlight charts below of the SP500, Russell 2000, NASDAQ Composite, UUP, EEM, TLT, HYG and LQD. The charts use the 50 day moving average slope indicator. When it is green we like the instrument we are tracking and when it is red we avoid the name/sector/asset class.

The S&P 500 is in the green. How are the other indexes and ETFs fairing. Go to www.superstocktrader.com to find out. 

1

Weekly Portfolio Update

The S&P 500 has moved lower since last week’s update. The Nasdaq Composite fell as well. The portfolio is still 84% invested long, 0% short and 16% in cash, net long 84%. We are now at a value of 932.64 from 967.33 last Tuesday. We finished the year at a value of 951.10 up 29.86% for the year.

Below are the year by year results on a cumulative and absolute basis:

It appears for the time being that 2000 on the S&P 500 has become support and 2050 is resistance. This is a drop of one level.

We have added the price target from the Alpha Intelligence Stock Scorecard into the weekly update. Names above price targets are highlighted in yellow. We will remain with these names as well until technical violations begin. ETFs recommendations can be found in The Madison Letter. In 2014, this will be updated each Friday with Market Crash Indicators. We added USO on the buy side November, 14th. So far this has yet to work.

Remember these returns are total returns with the average change for all winners and losers is 8.56% per idea. Our batting average of closed winners and losers is 70%. The portfolio is up 932.64% and from inception when it began at 0% in April of 2008. We began 2013 at a value of 478.60% so we had a very nice gain for 2013 ending at 732.40%. For 2014 we were up 218.70 points or 29.86%. The performance on the Uncommon Wisdom Daily Portfolio Tracker is a bit higher due to dividends which they add in. We have never added in dividends so our weekly results are understated since 2008.

The Russell 2000 is beating the S&P 500 on a daily basis. The Madison Letter still invested and the A/D line signal is now back to invested.