SSI Options Activity

We highlight unusual options activity with unusual volume activity The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) saw call action jump as it moved higher by 0.11% and is up in futures on a weaker China PMI number. Yahoo (YHOO) saw excess put action again as continues to remain weak thanks to its core position in Alibaba (BABA)

                                                      [Image 1]

                     The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volume

Futures Lower But Off The Lows

August 31, 2015

In After Hours Trading

IPOs On Deck this week none of note. Secondaries on deck this week MBVX.

In After Hours Trading: none of note.

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P -15.00, Dow Jones -130, NDX -26 and Russell 2000 -6.30 with fair value lower lessening the pain. Asia mixed and Europe lower today with the U.K. bucking the trend and rising.

Copper,silver and gold lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield -2. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Leaders yesterday included Utilities. Over the last week, the leader is Utilities. Over the last month the leader is Utilities. Over the last three months the leader is Healthcare. Six month and one year leader is Healthcare. YTD leader is Healthcare.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): BV.

Due Tuesday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): DLTR DCI.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

USA Today: Over the weekend, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer hinted at a pending interest rate increase. How should investors interpret last weeks selloff and then bounce.

Bloomberg: Stocks sees worst month since 2012. Disinflation remains a problem from Central Banks. Mohamed El-Erian sees jobs as key to Federal Reserve action in September.

The Week Ahead

1.Geopolitical and Fiscal Events. Tuesday sees Federal Reserve Boston President Rosengren speak and the RBA announces its latest interest rate decision. Wednesday sees the Federal Reserve issue its latest Beige Book Survey. Also, on Wednesday Russian President Putin visits China. The European Central Bank meets and is expected to hold interest rates steady. Thursday sees Japanese Prime Minister Abe visit China. Friday sees Federal Reserve Richmond President Lacker speak as does Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Kocherlakota. Also, on Friday the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet.

2.Economic Releases. Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and Chicago PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing, factory orders, ADP Payroll, Challenger Gray & Christmas Job Cuts, nonfarm payroll and the unemployment rate.

3.Earnings Releases. Notable releases include DLTR HRB QIHU DCI NAV GIII MDT CPB COO MRVL.

SSI Options Activity

We highlight unusual options activity with unusual volume activity The third column from the left will highlight such outliers.Atmel (ATML) saw call action jump as it moved higher by 1.61%. The SPDDR Consumer Staples Select Sector Fund(XLP) saw excess put action again as it tries to find a bottom.

                                                        [Image 1]

                                                       [Image 2]

                     The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volume

Futures Lower

August 28, 2015

In After Hours Trading

IPOs On Deck none of note. Secondaries on deck none of note.

In After Hours Trading: SWHC+.09, GME+.07, OVTI+.07, ULTA+.03, VEEV+.02, ADSK+.02.

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P -15.75, Dow Jones -137, NDX -33 and Russell 2000 -6.80 with fair value lower lessening the pain. Asia and Europe higher today.

Copper and silver lower with gold higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield -2. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Leaders yesterday included Utilities. Over the last week, the leader is Utilities. Over the last month the leader is Utilities. Over the last three months the leader is Healthcare. Six month and one year leader is Healthcare. YTD leader is Healthcare.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): none of note.

Due Monday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): none of note.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

USA Today: Puerto Rico braces for Tropical Storm Erika. A new drug from Amgen (AMGN) could lower cholesterol levels. Nine beat up stocks AAL GM HPQ JCI F PWR MOS XRX FTI.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): BIG+.06.

Current Morning missing: YGE.

Data Points

Yesterday saw 2825 stocks rise and 328 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 2218 rise and 654 fall.

The SP 500 is back below its 50 day exponential moving average and below the 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is still below its 50 day moving exponential average and is still below its 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is in cash. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is still invested.

YTD 3107 (-258) stocks are higher for the year and 3755 (+269) are lower. Updated 7/31/15 Close. Prior Update 7/1/15 close.

Economics

July Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 0.5% from 0.4%. Then at 10:00 a.m. EDT, the August Michigan Sentiment is due out and expected to remain at 92.9.

Politico

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer speaks Saturday from the Jackson Hole Conference.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings or announcements of note LABC PNM MYOS.

Conference of Note

The Kansas City Federal Reserve Jackson Hole Conference continues.

M & A News

Abbott Laboratories (ABT) will not bid for St. Jude Medical (STJ) as we reported yesterday.

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup PUBGY DMTGY VIVHY
Merrill Lynch
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
Stifel LOCO QUNR HABT GLNG CTRP MDCO
Sterne Agee
Jefferies
Piper Jaffray
Needham
Raymond James R KNX

The Madison Letter: Weekly Update

Since inception, our overall timing return is 70.89% versus 39.89% on the S&P 500 for excess return of 31.00%.

Madison scores on the major indexes are in a range of -6 to -9. Stocks and indexes were hammered in the last week but have recovered some of those losses on Wednesday and Thursday. Specifically, the past two days. On Tuesday morning a series of new buy signals kicked in for our institutional client base.

The range between the buy and sell points is now above average. As an example, the S&P 500 range was 54 points at the low and is now at 316.97 points which is a moon shot over the past week. As volatility rises, this expands so it is interesting that the range has peaked in the past past week. Witness at the October low the range was 169 points. Currently, volatility has rocketed in the last week to twice its level in October.

Also, in tracking the range between the 2 year and 10 year moves to 150 from 143 basis points week over week. Short term rates are on the rise while long term have fallen in the last week. This needs to be watched. There are implications, can you say flat yield curve.

There are now two open positions, a buy on TRF and a buy on USO. We will be launching a new portfolio in September that will hold up to six positions at a time as opposed to random signals. Recent open and closed ideas are now in the second table.

We began to offer a buy and sell strategy via our Madison Market Timing Indicator at the beginning of April of 2007. There are now 24 open and closed winning trades to 8 closed losing trades with our market timing results. This gives us lots of confidence in the upcoming portfolio launch. 

madison market timing

SSI Options Activity

We highlight unusual options activity with unusual volume activity The third column from the left will highlight such outliers.Halliburton (HAL)saw call action jump as it rocketed higher by 10.49%. Our sister publication Gold & Energy Options Trader locked in a 18% gain on its October $38 Call position. The SPDDR Consumer Staples Select Sector Fund(XLP) saw excess put action as it tries to find a bottom. 

                                                      [Image 1]

                                                       [Image 2]

                     The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volume

Futures Higher

August 26, 2015

In After Hours Trading

IPOs On Deck none of note. Secondaries on deck TLMR.

In After Hours Trading: JKHY+.07, LCI+.04, HEI-.02.

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P +32.50, Dow Jones +257, NDX +74 and Russell 2000 +12.20 with fair value lower helping the open. Asia mixed and Europe lower following the U.S. selloff on Tuesday.

Copper,silver and gold lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield +3. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Leaders yesterday included Utilities. Over the last week, the leader is Utilities. Over the last month the leader is Utilities. Over the last three months the leader is Healthcare. Six month and one year leader is Healthcare. YTD leader is Healthcare.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): AVGO, PSEC, NQ, WDAY, GES, VNET, PVH, WSM.

Due Thursday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): SDRL, DG, YGE, TD, BURL, TIF, PLL, SIG, PDCO, SJM, MIK.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

USA Today: Battered global financial markets seem to reclaim lost ground. China stimulus is the first step to market stablization. Federal Reserve is no where amid market chaos.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): ANF+.17, EXPR+.09, CHS+.03, FRO-.08.

Current Morning missing: BF.B.

Apple Still Rotten To The Core While Google Is Not Froogle

We are going to continue making Thursday our chart section in only Superstock Investor. That said, we are changing the format. Each Thursday in Wall Street Rebel we have moved to doing a Chart of The Week.

If you want to follow the S&P 500, then you will need to sign up for www.superstockinvestor.com at the website when subscriptions become available. Each week in Superstock we track the S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000, Emerging Markets (EEM), 20 Year Treasury (TLT), U.S. Dollar (UUP), High Yield Bonds (HYG) and Corporate Bonds (LQD). 

Last week we looked at Apple (AAPL) which has fallen out of favor with investors. Last week we noted, “Slope has hit a low BUT is not back above 0. If it turns back down, then there could be more weakness ahead.” We got weakness as the market got the best of Apple.

aapl 

 This week we look at Google (GOOGL) and note that it remain positive on the 50 Day Moving Average Slope Model. 

google

 Charts are courtesy of www.erlangerchartroom.com.

 

SSI Options Activity

We highlight unusual options activity with unusual volume activity The third column from the left will highlight such outliers.SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)saw call action jump as it finished lower by -1.36%. Freeport McMoran (FCX) saw excess put action as it tries to find a bottom.

                                                       [Image 1]

                     The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volume