Weekly Portfolio Update

The S&P 500 has risen since our last update. The Nasdaq Composite rose as well. The portfolio is now 67% invested long, 0% short and 33% in cash, net long 67%. We are now at a value of 826.06% from 809.43%last Tuesday.

It appears for the time being that 2000 on the S&P 500 has become resistance and 1900 is back as support.

We have added the price target from the Alpha Intelligence Stock Scorecard into the weekly update. All stocks are below their price targets thanks to the pullback except one. ETFs recommendations can be found in The Madison Letter. In 2014, this will be updated each Friday with Market Crash Indicators.

Remember these returns are total returns with the average change for all winners and losers is 7.44% per idea. Our batting average of closed winners and losers is 70%. The portfolio is up 826.06% and from inception when it began at 0% in April of 2008. We began 2013 at a value of 478.60% so we had a very nice gain for 2013 ending at 732.40%. So far this year we are up 77.03 points or 10.51%. The performance on the Uncommon Wisdom Daily Portfolio Tracker is a bit higher due to dividends which they add in. We have never added in dividends so our weekly results are understated since 2008.

Options Activity

Options Activity By Volume

We highlight unusual options activity with unusual volume activity The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. Arcelmittal (MT) saw unusual put action as it tries to find a bottom.No names had unusual call action.

 [Image 1]

[Image 2]

The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volume

Futures Swing To Red On IBM Weakness

n After Hours Trading

Four IPOs on deck today this week including Virobay and Viking Therapeutics. Secondaries on deck of note TTPH.

In After Hours Trading

(Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]):none of note.

IPO Financial provides our capital raise data.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: S&P 500 -5.50, Dow Jones -88 and NDX -1.20 with fair values lower lessening the losses of futures. Asia higher and Europe lower. Copper lower with silver and gold higher. WTI Crude higher and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield +1. Prices as of 7:55 a.m.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by market cap descending): AAPL, TXN, ILMN, CMG, CE, PKG, ZION, STLD, CDNS, BRO, EWBC, ELS, HXL.

Due Tuesday morning (by market cap descending): VZ, KO, UTX, MCD, LMT, KMB, CP, ITW, TRV, RAI, ARMH, OMC, HOG, RF, PNR, WAT, AOS, SBNY, CSL, LPT, MAN, GPK, ATI, EAT, SNV.

The Week Ahead

1. Geopolitical and Fiscal Events. Wednesday sees minutes out from the Bank of England.

2. Economic Releases. Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and jobless claims include existing home sales, CPI, leading indicators and new home sales.

3. Earnings Releases. Notable releases include (in order of day’s reporting with Tuesday first and Friday last AAPL IBM VZ KO T BA MSFT AMZN PG UPS among others companies as we continue Q3 earnings.

Options Activity

Options Activity By Volume

We highlight unusual options activity with unusual volume activity The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. Talisman Energy (TLM) saw unusual call action as it tries to find a bottom.No names had unusual put action.

 [Image 1]

[Image 2]

The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volume

Options Activity

Options Activity By Volume

We highlight unusual options activity with unusual volume activity The third column from the left will highlight such outliers.  No names saw unusual call action.  Conoco Phillips (COP)  saw unusual put action jump as it was pounded for a -2.75% loss. At $65 this is stupid cheap and it is almost there.

   [Image 1]

[Image 2]

The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volume

Options Activity

Options Activity By Volume

We highlight unusual options activity with unusual volume activity The third column from the left will highlight such outliers.Anadarko Petroleum (APC) saw unusual call action as it bled another -3%.  Noble Energy (NBL)  saw unusual put action jump as it was pounded for a -5% loss.

   [Image 1]

[Image 2]

The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volume

Portfolio Update

The S&P 500 has dropped since our last update. The Nasdaq Composite fell for the FOURTH time in eight weeks. The portfolio is now 67% invested long, 0% short and 33% in cash, net long 67%. We are now at a value of 809.43% from 848.39% last Tuesday.

It appears for the time being that 2000 on the S&P 500 has become resistance and now even 1900 is resistance.

We have added the price target from the Alpha Intelligence Stock Scorecard into the weekly update. All stocks are below their price targets thanks to the pullback.

Remember these returns are total returns with the average change for all winners and losers is 7.29% per idea. Our batting average of closed winners and losers is 70%. The portfolio is up 809.43% and from inception when it began at 0% in April of 2008. We began 2013 at a value of 478.60% so we had a very nice gain for 2013 ending at 732.40%. So far this year we are up 77.03 points or 10.51%. The performance on the Uncommon Wisdom Daily Portfolio Tracker is a bit higher due to dividends which they add in. We have never added in dividends so our weekly results are understated since 2008.

The Russell 2000 continues to lag the S&P 500 on a daily basis.

The Week Ahead

1.Geopolitical and Fiscal Events. Monday sees Chicago Federal Reserve President Evans speak at 12:30 p.m. EDT. Wednesday sees the Federal Reserve issue its latest Beige Book update. Thursday sees Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Plosser speak at 8:00 a.m. EDT and will be followed by Atlanta Federal Reserve President Lockhart at 9:00 a.m. EDT then Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Koberlakota at 10:00 a.m. EDT with Kansas City Federal Reserve President George at 12:15 a.m. EDT and finally St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard at 1:00 p.m. EDT. Friday sees Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen speak in Boston at 8:30 a.m. EDT followed by Boston Federal Reserve President Rosengren.

2.Economic Releases. Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and jobless claims include PPI, retail sales, industrial production, Philly Fed Survey, housing starts and Michigan Sentiment.

3.Earnings Releases. Notable releases include (in order of day’s reporting with Tuesday first and Friday last JNJ WFC BAC AXP GOOGL PM GE HON among others companies as we continue Q3 earnings.

The Madison Letter: Current Update

We began to offer a buy and sell strategy via our Madison Market Timing Indicator at the beginning of April of 2007. There are now 24 open and closed winning trades to 8 closed losing trades with our market timing results. We were left with one long position TRF from our original buys before launching with Uncommon Widsom Daily. This column replaces the Morning Matters on Fridays.

madison market timiing