Since inception, our overall timing return is 81.47% versus 48.56% on the S&P 500 for excess return of 32.91%.
The range between the buy and sell points is now above average. As an example, the S&P 500 range was 68 points at the low and is now 153 points. As volatility rises, this expands. Witness at the October low the range was 169 points.
Also, in tracking the range between the 2 year and 10 year we have seen the spread narrow by 39 basis points since October. The spread is now 138 basis points. This is a big drop for a couple month period but has expanded recently. Short term rates are on the rise while long term have fallen. This needs to be watched. There are implications.
We began to offer a buy and sell strategy via our Madison Market Timing Indicator at the beginning of April of 2007. There are now 24 open and closed winning trades to 8 closed losing trades with our market timing results. This column replaces the Morning Matters on Fridays.