Europe Gains On Strong Economic Data

Euro Zone Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI)were stronger than expected as the third quarter begins.

Euro Zone PMIs

 

Weekly Charts Updated

Each week we highlight charts below of the SP500, Russell 2000, NASDAQ Composite, UUP, EEM, TLT, HYG and CFT. The charts use the 50 day moving average slope indicator. When it is green we like the instrument we are tracking and when it is red we avoid the name/sector/asset class.

U.S. Equity indexes are all positive now. The U.S. Dollar has turned positive and bond funds are positive. EEM which is emerging markets is above 0. However, bond funds just clicked into the red for HYG. We are replacing CFT with LQD. Remember what matters is the slope of the 50 day moving average not the 50 day moving average itself.

All charts are created from www.erlangerchartroom.com and if interested in using this indicator in Chart Room please feel free to send us an email by using the Contact Us section from the home page.

[Image 1]

 

Index ETF Options Volume

Index ETF Options Volume

We are going to highlight unusual options activity as well going forward. The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. No stocks had unusual volume and excess put or call action. Volume is very light for such a volatile day.

 

[Image 1]

The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volumed

Markets Are Not In Panic Mode

Business Insider does a nice job of updating us on the state of the financial markets. Despite multiple conflicts around the world stocks are doing quite well.

Markets

 

Index ETF Options Volume

Index ETF Options Volume

We are going to highlight unusual options activity as well going forward. The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. SPY had unusual volume and excess put action. Puts continue to be purchased in large amounts on big up days.

[Image 1]

The rows in the options matrix are as follows:
  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volumed

Gold

Gold faces a move lower if U.S. economic data due this week comes in strong. An improving economy will hurt the price of gold.

Gold

Portfolio Update

The S&P 500 was a bit lower since our last update albeit -0.18%. The Nasdaq Composite has pulled back for the fourth week in a row losing -0.35%. The portfolio is still 75% invested long, 0% short and 25% in cash, net long 75%. We are now at a value of 800.24% from 827.35% last Tuesday.

We have added the price target from the Alpha Intelligence Stock Scorecard into the weekly update. All stocks are well below their price targets. ETFs recommendations can be found in The Madison Letter. In 2014, this will be updated each Friday with Market Crash Indicators.

Remember these returns are total returns with the average change for all winners and losers is 7.27% per idea. Our batting average of closed winners and losers is 70%. The portfolio is up 800.24% through last week from inception when it began at 0% in April of 2008. We began 2013 at a value of 478.60% so we had a very nice gain for 2013 ending at 732.40%. So far this year we are up 67.92 points or 10.74%. The performance on the Uncommon Wisdom Daily Portfolio Tracker is a bit higher due to dividends which they add in. We have never added in dividends so our results are understated.

The Russell 2000 is now lagging the S&P 500 on a daily basis.

Index ETF Options Volume

Index ETF Options Volume

 We are going to highlight unusual options activity as well going forward. The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. No stocks had unusual volume and excess put or call action. Volume is very light for such a volatile day.

 [Image 1]

The rows in the options matrix are as follows:
  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volumed

Space Exploration

45 years ago Buzz Aldrin walked on the moon. Aldrin has higher space exploration sights, Mars. Too bad our President does not share this vision. The Space Race of the 1960s highlighted in The Right Stuff spurred huge innovation and the technology boom. Hint for the President: we need another space race.

Space Exploration

 

The Week Ahead

1.Geopolitical and Fiscal Events Thursday sees the IMF give its latest world economic outlook.

2.Economic Releases. Releases of note this week other than the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and jobless claims include CPI, existing home sales, new home sales and durable goods.

 

3.Earnings Releases. Notable releases include (in order of day’s reporting with Monday first and Friday last) HAL CNI AAPL MSFT T FB AMZN V ABBV LYB among others companies as we continue Q1 earnings. See the earnings section.

4.Company, Analyst and Regulatory Meetings: CPB SCHW.