Allstate Corp (ALL) will report earnings after the close. Estimates are $1.42 versus $1.30. The stock is run out of room to move higher and for now is not worth buying. There are many other names to consider.
The S&P 500 is slightly higher than a week ago. The Nasdaq Composite remains above 5000. The portfolio moved to 50% invested long, 0% short and 50% in cash, net long 50% with profits taken in eBay (EBAY) on Monday’s open of 11.92%. We are now at a value of 996.56% from 1007.35% through Monday’s close. We finished the year at a value of 951.10 up 29.86% for the year. Our current value is 996.56% which puts us up 4.56% for the year.
Below are the year by year results on a cumulative and absolute basis:
It appears for now that 2100 on the S&P 500 has become support and 2150 is resistance. We are now at 2114.49 which is higher from a week ago. A big test for the week is to see if the S&P 500 can stay above 2100 for several days if not a week or two.
We have added the price target from the Alpha Intelligence Stock Scorecard into the weekly update. Names above price targets are highlighted in yellow. We will remain with these names as well until technical violations begin. ETFs recommendations can be found in The Madison Letter. In 2014, this will be updated each Friday with Market Crash Indicators. We added USO on the buy side November, 14th. So far this has yet to work.
Remember these returns are total returns with the average change for all winners and losers is 8.82% per idea. Our batting average of closed winners and losers is 72%. The portfolio is up to a value of 996.56% and from inception when it began at 0% in April of 2008. The performance on the Uncommon Wisdom Daily Portfolio Tracker is a bit higher due to dividends which they add in. We have never added in dividends so our weekly results are understated since 2008.
The Russell 2000 is now lagging the S&P 500 on a daily basis so we remain with a large to mid cap orientation.
1.Geopolitical and Fiscal Events. Monday sees Federal Reserve Chicago President Evans speaks about the economy and monetary policy as well as Federal Reserve Boston President Rosengren and Federal Reserve San Francisco President Williams. Tuesday sees Minneapolis President Kocherlakota speak. Wednesday sees the Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen speak along with Federal Reserve Atlanta President Lockhart. Wednesday also sees Federal Reserve Cleveland President Esther George speak on an IMF panel.
2.Economic Releases. Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and factory orders, international trade, Q1 Productivity, nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.
3.Earnings Releases. Notable releases include CMCSA EOG DIS DTV BUD FOXA BABA PCLN JD AOL.
Chuys Holdings (CHUY) restaurant stocks are struggling here creating bargins. The stock is starting to look very interesting to us as it is now some $20 dollar lower than where it was last year at this time. This name is below its price target and both the upper and lower limit. Earnings are due next week and we would scale with a 25% allocation.
Since inception, our overall timing return is 79.30% versus 46.78% on the S&P 500 for excess return of 32.52%.
Madison scores on the major indexes are in a wide range from -31 to -1. Stocks and indexes have moved lower in the past week.
The range between the buy and sell points is now above average. As an example, the S&P 500 range was 68 points at the low and is now 60 from 75 a week ago. As volatility rises, this expands. Witness at the October low the range was 169 points.
Also, in tracking the range between the 2 year and 10 year moves from 147 basis points to 140. Short term rates are on the rise while long term have fallen. This needs to be watched. There are implications.
We began to offer a buy and sell strategy via our Madison Market Timing Indicator at the beginning of April of 2007. There are now 24 open and closed winning trades to 8 closed losing trades with our market timing results.
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) fell on Wednesday as it missed on earnings estimates by 11 cents. The stock is starting to look very interesting to us as it is now some $30 dollar lower than where it was in February. Though it is still above the price target, it is far below the upper limit. This is a name that will rebound rather quickly as growth concerns are abated.
We are going to continue making Thursday our chart section in only Superstock. That said, we are changing the format. If you want to follow the S&P 500, then you will need to sign up for www.superstockinvestor.com at the website. Each week in Superstock we track the S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000, Emerging Markets (EEM), 20 Year Treasury (TLT), U.S. Dollar (UUP), High Yield Bonds (HYG) and Corporate Bonds (LQD). This alone is worth the price of the service as signals on the NASDAQ Composite returned 15.65% versus the index return of 18.93%.
Last week we focused on Cree (CREE) that was struggling after it broke the 0 line. It is lower by $0.35 week over week and is still weak in the model. We remain cautious.
This week we look at SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) that struggled over the last several weeks. If you do not respect a break into the
red, then be prepared to pay a steep price for gold. A potential turn could be in the offing.
1.Geopolitical and Fiscal Events. Monday sees Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visit the U.S. Wednesday sees the Federal Reserve end its latest two day meeting. Friday sees Federal Reserve San Francisco President John Williams speak on monetary policy in the financial markets.
2.Economic Releases. Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and consumer confidence, GDP, personal income, Chicago PMI, construction spending, ISM Manufacturing and Michigan Sentiment.
3.Earnings Releases. Notable releases include AAPL GGP PFE MRK MA BIDU XOM V CVX CVS.