Morning Matters: Weekly Charts Updated

Each week we highlight charts below of the SP500, Russell 2000, NASDAQ Composite, UUP, EEM, TLT, HYG and LQD. The charts use the 50 day moving average slope indicator. When it is green we like the instrument we are tracking and when it is red we avoid the name/sector/asset class.

 We replaced CFT with LQD and that moved negative last week.

 chart

Nabors Industries (NBR)

Unlike other drilling names that have become very cheap to their price targets, Nabors Industries (NBR) is still rather expensive and not worth a look yet.

 lqd

Index ETF Options Volume

Index ETF Options Volume

We are going to highlight unusual options activity as well going forward. The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) had unusual volume and excess put action for the third day in a row along with the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF EFA). No ETFs had unusual call action.

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The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volumed

Baytex (BTE)

Recently in our sister service Junior Resource Millionaire, http://jrm.uncommonwisdomdaily.com, we racked up some nice gains selling some calls in Baytex (BTE). The stock is worth a look in the energy space.

bte

Options Activity

Options Activity By Volume

We are going to highlight unusual options activity as well going forward. The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. Chesapeake Energy (CHK) saw heavy volume and put action as it tries to find a bottom at $25. Monsanto (MON)saw excess call activity and the company presented lastThursday at the UBS Best of Americas Conference. Follow through buyers?

[Image 1]

[Image 2]

The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volumed

Morning Matters Portfolio Update

The S&P 500 has dropped since our last update. The Nasdaq Composite fell for the first time in five weeks. The portfolio is now 75% invested long, 0% short and 25% in cash, net long 75%. We are now at a value of 842.43% from 850.47% last Tuesday.

It appears for the time being that 2000 on the S&P 500 has become resistance.

We have added the price target from the Alpha Intelligence Stock Scorecard into the weekly update. All stocks are below their price targets.

Remember these returns are total returns with the average change for all winners and losers is 7.70% per idea. Our batting average of closed winners and losers is 70%. The portfolio is up 842.43% and from inception when it began at 0% in April of 2008. We began 2013 at a value of 478.60% so we had a very nice gain for 2013 ending at 732.40%. So far this year we are up 110.03 points or 15.02%. The performance on the Uncommon Wisdom Daily Portfolio Tracker is a bit higher due to dividends which they add in. We have never added in dividends so our weekly results are understated since 2008.

To get access to the portfolio simply go to www.superstockinvestor.com and sign up.

Transocean LTD (RIG)

Transocean LTD (RIG) is getting pounded with other drilling stocks. That said, as a bottom materializes the stock should be able to mount a serious rally as it is extremely cheap to its price target.

rig

Exxon (XOM)

This morning we begin a review of energy stock that have been pounded and are now worthy of consideration once the price of crude oil bottoms. First up is Exxon (XOM) which is now $15 below our stock scorecard price target. There is decent support at $93.50 so watch to add this name at that level.

xom

The Week Ahead

1. Geopolitical and Fiscal Events RBA minutes are due out Monday night. Tuesday sees the United Nations General Assembly return for the fall session. Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen speaks on Wednesday after the release of FOMC minutes. Thursday sees Dallas Federal Reserve President Fisher speak at 10:00 a.m. EDT and President Obama meet with Ukraine President Poroshenko.

2.Economic Releases. Releases of note this week other than the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and jobless claims include industrial production, PPI, CPI, housing starts and leading indicators.

3.Earnings Releases. Notable releases include (in order of day’s reporting with Monday first and Friday last ALOG ADBE FDS GIS LEN ORCL CAG RHT RAD TIBX among others companies as we continue Q1 earnings.

Red Robin Gourmet Burger (RRGB)

Red Robin Gourmet Burger (RRGB) has been smacked back to earth from the stratosphere and is now very inexpensive. Worth a look.

 rrgb