Workday (WDAY)

Workday (WDAY) will report earnings after the close. Estimates are for a loss of $-0.08 versus $-0.13 a year ago. The stock is a bit above its price target but below its upper limit. Growth stocks often trade between the price target and upper limit. As long as the technicals are in okay shape, then we can be aggressive on the long side.

wday

 

SSI Options Activity

 We highlight unusual options activity where volume is heavy as well. The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. Alcatel Lucent (ALU) scontinues to see excess call action which leads me to believe a new bidder could emerge for the company. Huntsman Corp (HUN) comtinues to see excess put action as hedgie David Tepper added to his latest holdings. Put sellers?                                                                                                                 [Image 1]

                                                   [Image 2]

                     The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volume

The Week Ahead

1.Geopolitical and Fiscal Events. Tuesday sees Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Fisher speak. Tuesday also sees Federal Reserve Richmond President Lacker speak. Wednesday sees Treasury Secretary Jack Lew speak in London. Thursday sees Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Kocherlakota and San Francisco President Williams speak at separate venues.

2.Economic Releases. Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and durable goods, consumer confidence, new home sales, Q1 GDP (revised), Chicago PMI and Michigan Sentiment.

3.Earnings Releases. Notable releases include A WPC WMT HD LOW TGT HPQ INTU DE CPB.

Delta Airlines (DAL)

Delta Airlines (DAL) has seen its stock price fall from above $50 to a close of $43.75. So the $64,000 question is the stock price cheap yet?

dal

The Madison Letter Weekly Update

Since inception, our overall timing return is 83.20% versus 49.97% on the S&P 500 for excess return of 33.23%.

Madison scores on the major indexes are in a wide range from +11 to +14. Stocks and indexes have moved higher in the past week.

The range between the buy and sell points is now below average. As an example, the S&P 500 range was 54 points at the low and is now at 66. As volatility rises, this expands. Witness at the October low the range was 169 points.

Also, in tracking the range between the 2 year and 10 year moves from 140 basis points to 166. Short term rates are on the rise while long term have risen in the last week. This needs to be watched. There are implications.

There are now two open positions, a buy on TRF and a buy on USO.

We began to offer a buy and sell strategy via our Madison Market Timing Indicator at the beginning of April of 2007. There are now 24 open and closed winning trades to 8 closed losing trades with our market timing results. We were left with one long position TRF from our original buys before launching with Uncommon Widsom Daily. This column replaces the Morning Matters on Fridays.

Weekly Charts Updated

We are going to continue making Thursday our chart section in only Superstock Investor. That said, we are changing the format. Each Thursday in Wall Street Rebel we have moved to doing a Chart of The Week.

If you want to follow the S&P 500, then you will need to sign up for www.superstockinvestor.com at the website when subscriptions become available. Each week in Superstock we track the S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000, Emerging Markets (EEM), 20 Year Treasury (TLT), U.S. Dollar (UUP), High Yield Bonds (HYG) and Corporate Bonds (LQD). 

 Last week we looked at iShares Barclays 20 Year Bond Fund (TLT). The 50 day slope indicator did a nice job on predicting  the recent collapse. We were not a buyer at this point in time. 

tlt

 This week we look at the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) that withstood a quick drop below zero and is now turning up. Worth a look on the long side here. 

spy

Options Activity

We highlight unusual options activity where volume is heavy as well. The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. Alcatel Lucent (ALU) saw excess call action which leads me to believe a new bidder could emerge for the company. Huntsman Corp (HUN) saw excess put action as hedgie David Tepper added to his latest holdings. Put sellers?                    [Image 1]

                     The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volume

Shutterfly (SFLY)

Shutterfly (SFLY) is slowly but surely clawing its way out of the gutter after hitting a low of $40 back in January. That said, there is still a great of upside left in the this name before its price target is hit.

sfly

Options Activity

We highlight unusual options activity where volume is heavy as well. The third column from the left will highlight such outliers. Peabody Energy (BTU) saw excess call action to no avail as it dropped -4.33%. Huntsman Corp (HUN) saw excess put action as hedgie David Tepper added to his latest holdings. Put sellers?                                                                                           [Image 1]

                     The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volume

Salesforce.com (CRM)

Salesforce.com (CRM) will report earnings after the close. Estimates are for earnings of $0.14 versus $0.11. Decent growth but not enough for such a high priced stock. The stock is well above its price target and only fractionally below its upper limit. For now we would eschew this name.

crm