Russia Pulls Bond Sale

Bad news for Russia. The Finance Ministry pulled Wednesday’s offering due to “unfavorable market conditions”. Clearly, the sanctions are hitting Russia in ways never imagined. Without an ability to sell bonds, a country may face dire consequences.

Russia Bond Offering

Nikkei Rockets Higher

Stocks in Japan had their biggest day in 16 months as they rose 3.99%. Last Friday the Nikkei Stock Average hit correction mode dropping -10%. This morning Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund is raising its allocation to Japaneses stocks to 25%. Shorts scrambled.

Japan

Futures Swing To Red On IBM Weakness

n After Hours Trading

Four IPOs on deck today this week including Virobay and Viking Therapeutics. Secondaries on deck of note TTPH.

In After Hours Trading

(Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]):none of note.

IPO Financial provides our capital raise data.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: S&P 500 -5.50, Dow Jones -88 and NDX -1.20 with fair values lower lessening the losses of futures. Asia higher and Europe lower. Copper lower with silver and gold higher. WTI Crude higher and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield +1. Prices as of 7:55 a.m.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by market cap descending): AAPL, TXN, ILMN, CMG, CE, PKG, ZION, STLD, CDNS, BRO, EWBC, ELS, HXL.

Due Tuesday morning (by market cap descending): VZ, KO, UTX, MCD, LMT, KMB, CP, ITW, TRV, RAI, ARMH, OMC, HOG, RF, PNR, WAT, AOS, SBNY, CSL, LPT, MAN, GPK, ATI, EAT, SNV.

Futures Lower As Bombs Drop On Syria

In After Hours Trading

10 IPOs on deck this week with several hot deals. Secondaries on deck today AVAL PKY.

In After Hours Trading (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]):none of note.

IPO Financial provides our capital raise data.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: S&P 500 -6.50, Dow Jones -49 and NDX -15.80 with fair values lower lessening the pain. Asia lower ex Shanghai and Europe lower. Copper,silver and gold higher. WTI Crude lower and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield -2. Prices as of 7:50 a.m.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by market cap descending): BBBY CPRT.

Due Wednesday morning (by market cap descending): ACN PAYX TFSL MTN.

Articles That Matter: U.S. Arab Coalition Strikes Syria

Last night U.S. and Arab forces attacked Islamic State fighters, training compounds, headquarters, command and control facilities, storage facilities, finance center, supply trucks and armed vehicles. Basically everything.

Syria

Futures Higher But Pairing Gains

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck today Alibaba. Secondaries on deck today GST VKTX.

In After Hours Trading (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): CLC+.05, UNFI+.02.

IPO Financial provides our capital raise data.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: S&P 500 +4.75, Dow Jones +58 and NDX +12.80 with fair values lower helping the open. Asia higher and Europe higher. Copper higher with silver and gold lower. WTI Crude lower and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield flat. Prices as of 7:50 a.m.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by market cap descending): none of note.

Due Monday morning (by market cap descending): AZO.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

USA Today: Alibaba (BABA) priced at $68 a share. Dow and S&P 500 close at record highs. Whole Foods (WFM) to test rewards program.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): none of note.

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1862 stocks rise and 1207 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1636 rise and 1092 fall.

The SP 500 is now above its 50 day exponential moving average and is above the 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is now back above its 50 day moving exponential average and its 200 day exponential moving average as well with yesterday’s action.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is now invested. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is now invested.

YTD 4311 (+368) stocks are higher for the year and 2579 (358) are lower. Updated 8/26/14 Close. Prior Update 8/5/14 close.

Economics

August Leading Indicators are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to 0.4% from 0.9%.

Politico

G-20 Finance Ministers and central bank governors meet in Australia over the weekend.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst and investor meetings of note TW VHC.

Conference of Note

FCC Roundtable on Open Internet

M & A News

SAP to buy Concur Technologies (CNQR) for $129 a share. Stock closed at $107.80.

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

È

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs AEO CXP EMES CRR
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup
Merrill Lynch
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
Piper Jaffray
Needham
Jefferies
Stifel
Key Banc
Raymond James ZION

The Madison Letter

We are invested on our overall Market Call. Since inception, our overall timing return is 72.93% versus 41.56% on the S&P 500 for excess return of 31.36%. Scores change day to day.

We added a buy on iShares Core S&P 500 Index Fund ETF (IVV) and took gains on Tuesday 9/2.

We began to offer a buy and sell strategy via our Madison Market Timing Indicator at the beginning of April of 2007. There are now 24 open and closed winning trades to 8 closed losing trades with our market timing results.

madison market timiing

Scotland Stays In The European Union

European stocks are moving higher on the news that Scotland will remain part of the United Kingdom. The vote was 55% to 45%.

Scotland

Index ETF Materials Options Volume

Index ETF Materials Options Volume

We are going to highlight unusual options activity as well going forward. No names saw unusual options activity but several saw heavy put action.

  GEOT ETFs

The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

    • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
    • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
    • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
    • Sym = Symbol
    • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
    • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
    • Delta = Change in slope
    • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
    • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
    • cVolum = Call Volume
    • pVolum = Put Volumed

Monsanto (MON)

Monsanto (MON) moved higher yesterday on better a report from Stifel where they put a buy on the stock with a price target of $135. We would concur but do not have quite as high a price target.

mon