Market Matters: Futures Flatish

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on tap this week but not today Aquinox Pharmaceuticals, Coupons.com and Recro Pharma. Secondaries on deck this morning APAM FEYE ICAD.

Reported after the close: AMBA +.07 ALOG -.03 COO +.01 BREW +.00 JMBA +.08 KFY +.09 NVTL -.08 PNY +.07 QIHU +.27 ZQK -.04 SKUL +.04 TFM -.04 THO -.02 WTI -.14 among others.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: S&P +1.25, Dow Jones +10 NDX +2 with fair value a tad higher with no impact on open. Asia lower ex Japan. Europe lower. Copper, silver and gold lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas flat. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield -1. Prices as of 7:25 a.m. EST

Earnings Expected

No earnings due after the close. It’s Miller Time have a great weekend! 

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Index ETF Options Volume

oix daily

The rows in the options matrix are as follows:
  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volume

Starbucks (SBUX)

Starbucks (SBUX) has sold off since its November peak and now is an interesting buy idea.

sbux

Discovery Communications (DISCA)

Discovery (DISCA) beat estimates after the close and raised guidance. Estimates were $0.90 and the company reported $0.92. There is some nice upside to this name before hitting our price target. Worth a look.

disca

Syria: Now or Never?

It is apparent this morning that a potential strike on Syria is being delayed while a strike is played out in the United Nations and President Obama needs to get approval from Congress. The Wall Street Journal has a nice summary today of where we are at in the crisis.

Syria

Salesforce

Salesforce (CRM) will report earnings after the close. Estimates are $0.07 versus $0.42. Despite this weak earnings estimate, the stock is trading at a substantial discount to its price target. For the last three quarters, the stock has traded off on earnings. We would expect it to trade down again and then nibble on the stock.

Company Information

Company: SALESFORCE.COM INC
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software
Market Cap: $25,813 (Millions)

Targets

Price %Gain
Current Price $43.75
Price Target $50.32 15.0%
Upper Bound $62.40 42.6%
Lower Bound $40.58 -7.2%

Fundamental Variables

P/E Ratio N/A
Sales Growth 32.7%

Valuation Variables

Past Current Future
Profitability (CFROI) 12.9% 9.5% 11.0%
Growth (in Assets) 31.2% 6.2% 6.1%
Color Legend
Company
Rating
Company
Rank
Excellent Top 10%
Good 11- 30%
Average 31- 70%
Fair 71- 90%
Poor Bottom 10%

Stock data last updated 25-AUG-13.

Data provided by Ativo Research LLC. All information provided “as is” for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Ativo Research LLC is not liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing this page, you agree not to redistribute the information found herein.
Altivo Research Value+Plus® Release 2007

Futures Higher

In After Hours Trading

We expect filings and pricings during the week for secondaries but right now nothing on deck.

CWST (+.07) GES (+.17) GAME (+.04) TFM (.00) TLYS (+.02). TFM guided lower and will get hit today.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +5.75, Dow Jones +49, NDX +11.75 with fair value slightly lower helping the open. Asia higher ex Shanghai and Europe higher. Copper lower and gold lower with WTI Crude lower and Brent Oil Futures lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury Yield +2. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Due after the close CRM SPLK ESL KKD OVTI RUE SCVL BEBE PSUN AVID OCLR. Due tomorrow morning YGE SOL FRO.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are back to our own coverage of the major papers:

 

NY Times: U.S. faces test of proof on Syria. Portugal begins to see a rebound. Lobbyists pressure Congress to undo dialysis cuts.

Wall Street Journal: Main street confidence rises and small business owners seeing increase in consumer demand.

USA Today: Syria could retaliate against the U.S. Verizon and Vodafone resume talks.

Reported Earnings This Morning

FLWS(+.01) CPB (+.03) CSTM (-.18) GCO (-.04) JASO (+.01) LRN (+.03) MEI (+.16) PLL (+.02) RY (+.09) SIG (+.01)

Data Points

Wednesday saw 1676 stocks rise and 1324 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1453 rise and 1051 fall.

 

The S&P 500 is now back below its 50 day exponential moving average and above the 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is now below its 50 day moving exponential average and above its 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is now negative and we are in cash mode. The Madison Market Timing Indicator moved to buy on July 8th which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

Economics

Q2 GDP (preliminary) is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to rise to 2.3% from 1.7%. Weekly Jobless Claims are due at the same time. Then at 10:30 Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out.

Politico

Congress is on vacation until after Labor Day thankfully. A military action in Syria by the U.S. military looks to be delayed for the time being.

 

St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard and Richmond Federal Reserve President Lacker speak at separate venues, times are 2:00 p.m. EDT and 6:45 p.m. respectively.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst Meetings of note LSTR. Simmons European Energy Conference.

Conference of Note

VM World 2013

M & A News

Verizone (VZ) may buy Vodafone Group (VOD)

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

 

 

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup WOSYY
Merrill Lynch
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
HSBC ABB WIT ASAZY
Needham
Jefferies STML
Lazard IMUC
Societe Generale
Raymond James MHK
Societe Generale
Keefe Bruyette
Oppenheimer
Friedman Billings
Robert W. Baird
Evercore
Sun Trust RH
Credit Agricole
RBC
RBS
Cantor Fitzgerald
CIBC
Dresnder
Key Banc
HSBC Securities
Cowen
William Blair
BNP Paribas
Nomura
Kaufman
Brean Murray
JMP Securities
Wedbush
Argus
CLSA
BB&T
ING
Roth
Janney Montgomery
Susquehanna
Think Equity
Merriman
Cantor Fitzgerlad
BMO Capital
Benchmark
Jesup & Lamont
Macquarie
Canaccord Adams
Evercore
MKM
Bernstein
CLSN
Guggenheim
Auriga
Stephens
BTIG
Global Hunter
Longbow

 

 

Futures Flatish

In After Hours Trading

We expect filings and pricings during the week for secondaries but right now nothing on tap.

ARAY (+.01) AVAV (-.23) AVGO (+.08) DY (-.01) HEI (+.04) TIVO (+2.09) WDAY (+.05).

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P -2, Dow Jones -8, NDX -1.75 with fair value slightly lower helping the open. Asia and Europe lower. Copper lower and gold higher with WTI Crude higher and Brent Oil Futures higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury Yield +2. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Due after the close WSM GEF TFM GES GAME OFIX TLYS CWST CSTM. Due tomorrow morning RY TD CPB PLL SIG BIG TECD GCO LRN BRLI FRED FLWS JASO COCO.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are back to our own coverage of the major papers:

 

NY Times: WEBSITE DOWN DUE TO HACKING.

Wall Street Journal: Many retailers are struggling to crack online market. U.K. pushes for Syria action. Rout is emerging markets continues. Williams Sonoma vulnerable on earnings report today.

USA Today: U.K. prepares U.N. for resolution. Fear trade takes hold on Wall Street.

Reported Earnings This Morning

AMAP(-.05) CHS (-.05) FRO (-1.06) JOY (+.34) ZLC (+.08)

Data Points

Thursday saw 602 stocks rise and 2460 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 323 rise and 2225 fall.

 

The S&P 500 is now back below its 50 day exponential moving average and above the 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is now below its 50 day moving exponential average and above its 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is now negative and we are in cash mode. The Madison Market Timing Indicator moved to buy on July 8th which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

Economics

Q2 GDP (preliminary) is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to rise to 2.3% from 1.7%.

Politico

Congress is on vacation until after Labor Day thankfully. Watch for military action in Syria by the U.S. military.

 

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst Meetings of note HMY. Simmons European Energy Conference.

Conference of Note

Morgan Stanley Energy Summit.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan TASR
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup DEG DW TIF
Merrill Lynch STO
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse PLOW
Banc of America
UBS
Miller Tabek
Needham
Jefferies
Credit Agricole TIF
Societe Generale
Raymond James
Societe Generale
Keefe Bruyette
Oppenheimer
Friedman Billings
Robert W. Baird
Evercore
Sun Trust RH
Credit Agricole
RBC
RBS
Cantor Fitzgerald
CIBC
Dresnder
Key Banc
HSBC Securities
Cowen
William Blair
BNP Paribas
Nomura
Kaufman
Brean Murray
JMP Securities
Wedbush
Argus
CLSA
BB&T
ING
Roth
Janney Montgomery
Susquehanna
Think Equity
Merriman
Cantor Fitzgerlad
BMO Capital
Benchmark
Jesup & Lamont
Macquarie
Canaccord Adams
Evercore
MKM
Bernstein
CLSN
Guggenheim
Auriga
Stephens
BTIG
Global Hunter
Longbow

Technical Update

Yesterday was ugly plain and simple. With the two day pounding it makes sense to revisit the current retracement levels and our oversold indicator.

The S&P 500 has now fallen below its 50% retracement from the June low to the August high. The 61.80% retracement is not much lower at 1617.38. I would prefer to see this level violated and get it over with. The likelihood of a 100% retracement to the June lows still seems unlikely to me.

[Image 1]

Second the oversold indicator tracked is again oversold. Once under 30 it is oversold and currently it is at 25. It needs to move back above 30 to be an aggressive buyer.

[Image 2]

Last, we have a couple comments this morning from Fred Meissner of www.thefredreport.com. Fred is formerly Merrill Lynch’s technical analyst to its financial advisors. A couple comments from his morning note today caught our attention.

“A close on Friday below 163.45 on SPY would be the 18th time the May – August period has been negative since the inception of the S&P 500 in 1927, and around 58% of those years were actually down years. You can see the table in our article in the June 2012 Monthly Review, “Buy in May is totally OK.”

“In any event, the chance of an “average” summer rally of 8.29% from the May 31 close, a close of 177 on SPY this Friday, is slipping away. We remain intermediate-term defensive in portfolios, and are still comfortable with our November 2012 forecast that the first half of 2013 will be stronger than the second.”

I find the fact that markets have given up July’s gain of 4.93% troubling. In June, the S&P 500 lost -1.50% and now in August the S&P 500 is down -3.28%. This is “fugly”.

Retired Women Must Read This

This morning Market Watch posted an interesting article. The motif is that retired women live longer than their male counterparts and face more issues as a result. Worth a read if you are a woman or if you are married and your wife is likely to outlive you.

Retired Women